Bobby Abreu Appreciation Society

Walk-off Championship Hits

2006-01-10T08:32:00.000-08:00

What do Joe Carter and Bill Mazeroski have in common? They are of course the only players in World Series history to win a World Series with a walk-off home run. I read Glory of Their Times last week, and Goose Goslin's account of his walk-off single in the 1935 World Series brought me to think. What players have won World Championships for their team with walk-off hits of any sort?

1912: Down 2-1 in the 10th inning of the 8th and deciding game (one game was a tie), the Boston Red Sox rally to score two runs off Christy Mathewson and the New York Giants. Larry Gardner's sacrifice fly with the bases loaded and one out wins the game, scoring Steve Yerkes. This inning featured "Snodgrass's muff," which saw Giants' center fielder Fred Snodgrass drop a fly ball, allowing the tying run to reach base.

1924: Earl McNeely hits a double in the 12th inning of game seven, scoring Muddy Ruel and winning the Series for the Washington Senators over the New York Giants. This game saw Walter Johnson enter in relief in the ninth inning to hold the tie. An error on a foul pop by Hank Gowdy and a fielding error by Travis Jackson doomed the Giants.

1927: The Pittsburgh Pirates had dropped three straight games to the New York Yankees. In game four, with the game tied at three in the ninth, reliever Johnny Miljus issued a leadoff walk to Earle Combs. Mark Koenig bunted a single. Miljus then threw a wild pitch with Babe Ruth at the plate, advancing runners to second and third. With first base open, Miljus intentionally walked Ruth. Bases loaded, none out. Miljus proceeded to strike out Lou Gehrig, then Bob Meusel. However, with Tony Lazzeri at the plate, Miljus threw another wild pitch, and Earle Combs scored the series ending run.

1929: The Chicago Cubs' hard luck series. In game four, the Cubs held an eight run lead going into the seventh inning, but gave up ten runs to the Philadelphia Athletics. In game five down three games to one, the Cubs held a two run lead in the ninth, three outs away from taking the series back to Chicago. Pitcher Pat Malone struck out pinch-hitter Walt French for the first out. Max Bishop followed with a single, and Mule Haas struck a game tying home run. Mickey Cochrane grounded out for out number two. Al Simmons doubled, and Jimmie Foxx was then walked intentionally. Bing Miller followed up with a double, scoring Al Simmons and winning the World Series for the Athletics.

1935: Game six of the 1935 World Series saw the Detroit Tigers and Chicago Cubs tied in the ninth. Mickey Cochrane singled with one out. Charlie Gehringer's ground out moved Cochrane to second, and Goslin scored him on a single.

1953: One of the most overlooked classic World Series of all time. Down three games to two in New York and down 3-1 in the ninth, Carl Furillo hit a game tying, two run home run for the Brooklyn Dodgers. In the bottom of the ninth however, Hank Bauer walked, Mickey Mantle hit a single, and Billy Martin followed with a single, scoring Bauer and winning the World Series.

1960: Bill Mazeroski hits a lead-off home run in the ninth to lead the Pittsburgh Pirates over the New York Yankees, 10-9. Perhaps one of the greatest World Series games of All-Time, the Pirates produced a five run eighth, and the Yankees countered with a two run ninth to tie the game and temporarily stave off elimination.

1991: Most are doubtless familiar with game seven of the 1991 World Series. Jack Morris pitches ten innings of shut-out ball. Dan Gladden leads off the tenth for the Minnesota Twins with a double. Chuck Knoblauch bunts him to third base. The Atlanta Braves walk the next two batters intentionally. Gene Larkin follows with a deep single to score Gladden and win the game.

1993: Stop cringing Philly fans. They still would have needed to trot out that bullpen in game seven. With a one run lead in the ninth, closer Mitch Williams walks Rickey Henderson and gives up a single to Paul Molitor. Joe Carter blasts a hanging slider over the left field fence to win the World Series for the Toronto Blue Jays.

1997: Game seven of the World Series between the Florida Marlins and Cleveland Indians. The Indians held a 2-1 lead in the ninth, but the Marlins tied it on a sacrifice fly. With two outs and the bases loaded in the 11th, Edgar Renteria lines a single just past the glove of pitcher Charles Nagy, scoring Craig Counsell.

2001: Game seven of the 2001 World Series sees the Arizona Diamondbacks come back from a 1-0 deficit to defeat the New York Yankees, 3-2. Luis Gonzalez punches the game winning single into VERY shallow center field, scoring Jay Bell.

That gives us a complete list of Larry Gardner, Earl McNeely, Earle Combs, Bing Miller, Goose Goslin, Billy Martin, Bill Mazeroski, Gene Larkin, Joe Carter, Edgar Renteria, and Luis Gonzalez. Three Hall of Famers, some All-Stars, and other fairly obscure players.

Now let's see what pitchers surrendered walk-off hits. Christy Mathewson, Jack Bentley, Johnny Miljus, Pat Malone, Larry French, Clem Labine, Ralph Terry, Alejandro Pena, Mitch Williams, Charles Nagy and Mariano Rivera. One Hall of Famer and one future Hall of Famer. Certainly more obscure pitchers. That makes sense though, because a team on the brink of elimination is likely to have exhausted their pitching resources. For the record, Larry French won 197 games in his career, Pat Malone won 134, Charles Nagy won 129, and Ralph Terry won 107. Mitch Williams was the only pitcher on the list with a losing career record. Most have been lost to memory.

I get the feeling that game winning hits, except for home runs, are far more memorable for the hitter than for the pitcher. We recognize these as an accomplishment on one part, and not a failure on another part.

Hall of Fame Choices

2006-01-08T17:45:00.000-08:00

The Hall of Fame announces its inductees tomorrow, and with it will go a subject that provides practically the only discussion fodder we have during these slow winter months. In previous weeks I have stumped for two candidates, Alan Trammell and Bert Blyleven. Both are deserving of the Hall. There are a handful of other players I would support on my hypothetical ballot.

Goose Gossage

Only three closers are in the Hall, Rollie Fingers, Dennis Eckersley and Hoyt Wilhelm. The position of closer is new and the inductees are few, so the Hall voters have yet to establish firm standards on what constitutes a Hall of Famer. Two questions arise for relievers. Do they belong, and if so, who goes? I think the inclusion of three relievers answers the first question, as you can hardly elect a few and then slam the door. Gossage is the best relief pitcher on the ballot, and probably the best eligible relief pitcher not in the Hall. Gossage and Bruce Sutter were both dominating forces, but Gossage is slightly better, and had a longer career. I'm not a big proponent of electing closers en masse.. Sutter's too close to Dan Quisenberry to gain my outright support. He wouldn't drag down the Hall however.

Enough theory. Gossage was a nine time All Star. Gossage retired second on the All-Time saves list, behind Hall of Famer Rollie Fingers. He's 52nd on the All-Time Adjusted ERA list. And his two most similar pitchers are Fingers and Hoyt Wilhelm, two of the three Hall of Fame relievers.

Andre Dawson

Ask most stat-heads about Dawson and they point to his .323 career On Base Percentage. Certainly that is low. However, that is just about the only negative on Dawson's resume. The numbers are overwhelming. 438 home runs, 314 stolen bases, eight All Star appearances, and eight Gold Glove awards. Four of those came while Dawson played center field. Five of Dawson's ten most comparable players are in the Hall. Remember Carlos Beltran in 2004? For seven years in Montreal, that was roughly Andre Dawson. A gold glove center fielder who could hit for power and steal bases, and moreover compiled impressive career totals. That's a Hall of Famer.

On the Fence

Bruce Sutter I mentioned. Dale Murphy won two consecutive MVP awards and was a top performer in his heyday. But he fell off the cliff mid-career. I usually do not select Murphy, but on a good day he is a very tempting candidate.

B.J. Upton

2005-12-30T13:04:00.000-08:00

Last season, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays' front office received criticism for leaving highly touted prospects in the minor leagues. B.J. Upton and Delmon Young did not see any time in the Major Leagues last season despite outstanding play. The general assumption is that the front office was cheap. Calling up players would mean their arbitration clocks would run, making them expensive sooner.

Let me first address Delmon Young. Young dominated AA and was probably the best player in the Southern League. He held his own in AAA, but posted a less than stellar 33/4 K:BB ratio at the plate. Young has 52 games of AAA ball under his belt, and is certainly not at the point where he can reasonably claim he is held back.

B.J. Upton is another matter. Upton performed well in AAA in 2004 and earned a mid-season call-up to Tampa Bay, where again performed. In 2005 however, Upton spent the entire season in AAA Durham. Upton led the International League in games played, runs scored, hits, total bases, and walks. Upton hit .303 with a .392 OBP, and stole 44 bases in 57 tries. The problem? He made 53 errors, more than any player in organized baseball.

Two questions arise in this type of situation. One, how indicative are the errors of his fielding ability? Two, does his poor play in the field negate his offensive contributions? Fielding percentage has problems as an overall gauge of defensive ability. It only measures how often a player screwed up in the field. It does not recognize the distinction between a player who makes many plays and one who can only field balls directly to him.

Defensive statistics in general are a mine field. One mut account for opportunites, since even the best fielder can only field balls in his area. An unusual number of groundball pitchers, left or right handed pitchers, can skew our numbers. Even direct observations have their problems. Only the most eagle-eyed baseball observer can observe invisible range, how a fielder positions himself before the pitch is thrown. A routine play may not have been possible without a player anticipating the play and positioning himself properly.

So what do we do? The best we can do is gather as much information as possible. One statistic that is useful because of its ease is range factor. The statistic has its problems, but it is the best fielding statistic that does not require college math. Range factor simply measures the number of plays a fielder makes. Twenty-five players in the International League last season played 30 or more games at shortstop. Of those 25, Upton rates fifth in range factor. Clearly, Upton collected quite a few outs in the field despite his miscues.

Could something have skewed those numbers in Upton's favor? Baseball America thankfully started printing Groundball/Flyball ratios on their website. If the Durham Bulls saw an unusual amount of groundballs, that would effect Upton's statistics. The Bulls had a G/F ratio of 1.17, which ranked fourth in the International League. That is somewhat elevated, but probably not enough to significantly throw off the numbers (although the Red Barons' abnormally high G/F ratio explains Danny Sandoval's high range factor). I also looked at pitchers. If the Bulls had many left handed pitchers, that would create more fielding opportunities for the right side of their infield. In fact, the Bulls had a lower than usual number of innings pitched by lefties.

The ultimate measure of fielding is a team's pitching record. If a team gives up a high number of runs, then they probably do not enjoy good fielding. The Durham Bulls surrendered 865 runs, along with an astounding 147 unearned runs. Both figures led the International League by a substantial margin. However, this comes with a few caveats. One, the Bulls did have poor pitchers. The Tampa Bay Devil Rays trot out an amazing collection of bad starters each season, and any pitcher with a morsel of talent is going to the big club to try and right the ship. Second, the Durham Bulls committed 198 errors as a team. If B.J. Upton had not made any of his 53 errors, they still would have led the league. In fairness, I will point out that the Bulls' first basemen made 25 errors, and it is possible errant throws caused some of them. Let's put this into context. The Toledo Mud Hens had the best ERA in the International League. Their first basemen committed 15 errors, and their shortstops committed 31 errors. Remember it's 25 for the Bulls' first basemen, and 53 for Upton.

Setting range factors aside for now, we have 32 extra errors over the course of the 144 game season. That is an extra error about once every four games. Compare that with Upton's offensive contributions. Is a .303 hitter likely to make up for those errors? Almost certainly. There is a lingering suspicion however. The big problem with range factor is that it measures defensive outs. Every team makes 24-27 outs a game, regardless of defensive quality. It is possible that Upton missed quite a few plays, and still had terrific fielding numbers because each missed opportunity creates a new opportunity. That is a major pitfall of fielding statistics, and there is no easy answer for it.

If Upton is a fielding liability but a great hitter, why don't the Devil Rays just make him their DH? Quite simply, Upton can not improve his fielding percentage by not fielding? If there is any shot at making him a less error prone player, he needs to play in the field. The Devil Rays have a more than capable shortstop at present in Julio Lugo, so there is no pressure in making Upton the starting shortstop. The Devil Rays leaving Upton in AAA to work on his defense is a defensible decision, and most criticism is unwarrented.

Does Upton have a career as a shortstop or is he a defensive liability there? I've presented the evidence as best I can, and you can draw your own conclusions.

Houston Astros

2005-12-28T07:48:00.000-08:00

In the hot stove talk, some teams are neglected. The Houston Astros won 89 games and the NL pennant last year, but since they have made virtually no moves, they are forgotten. Where do they stand? Are they potential pennant repeaters, or are they declining?

The big news of the offseason has been the temporary departure of the Astros' star pitcher, Roger Clemens. Clemens posted a 1.87 ERA in 211.3 innings, one of the most impressive seasons in baseball history. However, the Astros decided they could not wait for Clemens' annual retirement decision, and declined to offer arbitration. As a result, they can not re-sign Clemens until May 1st. In his place, the Astros still hold Andy Pettitte and Roy Oswalt. Both pitchers enjoyed fantastic seasons last year, and are good bets to repeat their performance. The only concern is that Pettitte's backloaded contract comes due this season, as Pettitte is owed $17 Million for 2006.

Andy Pettitte has not garnered serious talk for the Hall of Fame. He is making a charge. Pettitte's record stands at 172-91, a nifty .654 winning percentage. That is not a Hall of Fame record, but it a good base for a pitcher to build a late-career run on. Andy Pettitte's list of comparable players are unpromising, as none of the first eight are in the Hall. However, only the top two (Mike Mussina and Jimmy Key) are truly comparable, and Mussina will be a serious candidate in his own right.

The concern for the Astros is that their rotation is thin after Oswalt and Pettitte. Brandon Backe receives notice as a good pitcher, but his peripherals are underwhelming, as was his 4.76 ERA last season. Backe's posted great statistics in the postseason. He may very well be a great postseason pitcher, but the team needs to get to the postseason first. Wandy Rodriguez and Ezequiel Astacio both posted ERAs north of five, again with unspectacular peripherals. Astacio surrendered 23 home runs in just 83 innings.

Still, the Astros led the league in least runs allowed. Minute Maid Park has earned a reputation as a good hitters' park, but overall it plays neutral. While it is a great park for right handed home runs, it is one of the league's most difficult parks for left handed home runs. This gives right handed power pitchers like Oswalt and Clemens a tremendous advantage. It also makes Andy Pettitte look all the more impressive. What led the Astros beyond their big three were their three best relievers, Chad Qualls, Russ Springer and Brad Lidge. The big issue for the Astros is that relief pitching is probably the most volitale aspect of a club. If that relief pitching is not as good next season, especially if Clemens does not return, they could find themselves in trouble.

The Astros' offense was extremely weak for a pennant winning club. The team finished 11th in runs scored last year. A few of their core players, Brad Ausmus, Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio, are nearing the end of their careers. The team contains two true impact hitters, Lance Berkman and Morgan Ensberg. Jason Lane hit 26 home runs, but his .316 OBP limits his overall value. The team last year contained four well below average offensive players in Ausmus, Chris Burke, Adam Everett and Willy Taveras.

Burke and Taveras might cause a double take. Burke is an acceptable hitter, but he is a below average hitter playing left, where most teams carry big bats. Taveras hit for a good enough average, but he does not walk and he does not hit for power. Taveras' main asset is his glovework, well apparent to those who watched the 2005 Playoffs.

The Astros surprised observers by reaching the playoffs in 2005, and they did so on the strength of their pitching staff. If they do not re-sign or replace Clemens, there is simply no way their staff can be as effective as last year. The Phillies will be back, the Mets have acquired big guns, and the young Brewers are gaining steam. The Astros will have a difficult time repeating.

Alan Trammell for the Hall

2005-12-21T20:44:00.000-08:00

This time of year is awfully slow for baseball fans. The occasional free agent signing or trade trickles out, but it can only sustain interest for a short while. Hall of Fame discussions always generate interest, and they are good fallback for baseball discussion. When I am asked who I would pick on the HOF ballot, one of the names I mention is Alan Trammell. Trammell does not merit a great deal of interest, positive or negative. Yet he is one of the greatest shortstops in baseball history.

The most common reason a deserving player eludes the Hall is that he contributed by doing many things well, rather than something specific that impresses voters. Nothing on Trammell's resume screams Hall of Famer. But when you take the full scope of Trammell's career, it comes into view. One of the big problems is that the voting block has never truly developed a pattern for considering players who contributed on both offense and defense. Pure offensive stats will get a player into the Hall, and defensive marvels have a shot, but split players will struggle. In the last fourty years, the writers have voted in only four shortstops (Ozzie Smith, Ernie Banks, Robin Yount and Lou Boudreau).

On offense, Trammell usually hit in the #2 slot, and he was as good a hitter as you could find in that slot. Trammell's .352 career OBP rates higher than Banks, Yount or Cal Ripken, all Hall of Fame caliber players. Trammell drew walks and hit for mid-range power. Also, he almost never grounded into a double play. Trammell hit 185 home runs and stole 236 bases. But many players can make the same claim. What makes Trammell special?

Trammell was an unusually good hitter for his position, for his time. People forget that prior to the 1980s, it was not at all common for a middle infielder to hit well. Many teams punted offense in favor of glove men. Trammell ironically suffers because he came up around the same time as two similar but superior players, Ripken and Yount. Trammell was not as good a hitter as those two, but he was a better defensive player. Trammell won four gold gloves, compared to two for Ripken (and those won on reputation), and one for Yount.

Trammell's rate stats suffer from entering the Majors early and sticking around as a reserve two years too long. In his prime, he was a terrific offensive force, regularly posting OPS's 30% above average. Trammell's 318 win shares rate favorably among Hall of Fame shortstops, and better than almost all veteran committee selections, including Phil Rizzuto, Rabbit Maranville, Joe Tinker, Travis Jackson, Pee Wee Reese, and Joe Sewell. I think Trammell's a more than deserving choice.

Jim Rice vs. Will Clark

2005-12-19T06:41:00.000-08:00

Two interesting names appear on this year's Hall of Fame ballot. Jim Rice is a perennial contender, usually collecting a little more than half the available votes. In Hall of Fame discussions, Rice is often mentioned as a candidate whom clearly deserves induction. Will Clark makes his first appearance on the ballot this year. He had a fine career but is not seriously considered for the Hall.

Neither are strong candidates in my opinion. However, if you wish to endorse Jim Rice for the Hall of Fame, you need to first reconcile him against the career of Will Clark. When you study the careers of both men, Clark comes through as a better player, both in his prime and overall.

Rice played in 2,089 games, while Clark played in 1,976. These are careers of similar length, with less than one season's difference. The only advantages Rice has in playing time are his cup of coffee in 1974, and that Clark missed several dozen games due to the 1994-95 labor dispute. Both players retired at the age of 36. Will Clark was a career .303 hitter, with a .497 slugging percentage. Rice hit .297, and slugged .502. Jim Rice collected 382 home runs and 1,451 RBIs, compared to 284 home runs and 1,205 RBIs for Clark.

Those "triple crown" statistics, batting average, home runs and RBIs, tend to sway the argument towards Rice. Here is where we need to dig deeper into the statistics. First, walks. Will Clark collected 937 walks in his career, compared to 670 for Rice. That amounts to 267 times Clark reached base while Jim Rice racked up outs. What value do 267 walks have that erases the effect of 100 home runs? They do not solve everything, but they close the gap. Here is a more eye-popping statistic however. Jim Rice grounded into 315 double plays in his career. Rice ranks 6th all-time in grounding into double plays, and the five players above him all played at least 800 more career games (Cal Ripken, Carl Yastrzemski, Hank Aaron, Eddie Murray and Dave Winfield, for those interested). Will Clark, by comparison, grounded into exactly 100, less than a third of Rice's total. That adds up to a great deal of outs used by Rice. Each player's On Base Percentage reflects the difference in walks. Clark beats Rice, .384 to .352, a significant advantage.

Clark played first base and won a gold glove. Rice played left field and was not regarded as a particularly adept fielder. Both were not defensive marvels. Neither player possessed a great deal of speed, but Clark was a great percentage base stealer in his prime, at one point snagging 25 bases in 31 tries in a three year period.

Was Rice a better player in his prime? After all, much of his Hall of Fame argument rests on a three year run where he hit .320 with 124 home runs and 383 RBIs. Those are very impressive numbers. However, Clark even surpasses him. Clark hit .333 in 1989, his best season. 23 home runs is not nearly as impressive as 46 home runs in a season for Rice. But then we consider that Clark walked 74 times, hit 38 doubles, stole 8 bases in 11 tries, and only grounded into six double plays all season. And all of that is before we consider that Clark played in a pitchers' park while Rice played in Fenway, the prevailent hitters' park before the ballpark boom.

But Rice was a feared hitter, wasn't he? Just take a look at the intentional walks. Rice was intentionally walked 77 times in his career, including ten times in a single season. Clark was intentionally walked 155 times, twice as often as Rice. In fact, Clark had seven seasons where he was intentionally walked more often than in Rice's top season.

Postseason. Clark hit .333 in 31 postseason games, including 5 home runs, a .409 On Base Percentage and .547 slugging percentage. Clark's performance in the 1989 NLCS (13 for 20, 3 doubles, one triple, two home runs, 2 walks) ranks as perhaps the most dominant single series hitting display in baseball history. Rice hit .225 in 18 postseason games, with a .312 On Base percentage and .366 slugging.

If you support Rice for the Hall, you need to take a good, long look at Will Clark.

Bert Blyleven For the Hall

2005-12-13T11:22:00.000-08:00

The Hall of Fame ballots are out to members of the Baseball Writers' Association of America. Results will be announced in a few weeks. Once again, the writers will likely overlook the candidacy of pitcher Bert Blyleven. The knock on Blyleven is generally that he does not "feel" like a Hall of Fame pitcher. He only once won 20 games, played in just two All-Star games, and lost 250 games. If you take time to look at the numbers however, I think you will find Blyleven a worthy candidate.

25th All Time in wins (287)

13th All Time in Innings pitched (4,970)

5th All Time in Strikeouts (3,701)

9th All Time in Shutouts (60)

22nd All Time in Pitchers' Win Shares (339)

Those shutout totals are particularly noteworthy. If you exclude dead-ball pitchers, Blyleven ranks fourth behind only Warren Spahn (63), Nolan Ryan (61) and Tom Seaver (61). Nolan Ryan was considered the dominant pitcher of his era, and while making almost 100 more starts, earned just one more shut-out than the supposively not dominant Blyleven.

Blyleven's ERAs are very good. In his rookie season, Blyleven posted an ERA of 3.18. It would be eight years before Blyleven posted another ERA higher than 3. His adjusted ERA totals rate above Nolan Ryan, Don Sutton, and many other Hall of Fame pitchers. Blyleven saw six seasons with an adjusted ERA better than another candidate touted as a dominant ace, Jack Morris.

What about the argument that Blyleven was not a big game pitcher? Retrosheet.org keeps split statistics dating back to 1960. Blyleven's career ERA improved later in the season. While Blyleven posted a career 3.31 ERA, it fell to 2.89 in August and 2.93 in September. Blyleven pitched extremely well in the postseason, posting a 2.47 ERA in eight games. Blyleven compiled a 5-1 postseason record, along with 36 strikeouts and eight walks. Blyleven's teams won two World Championships, one in 1979 with the Pirates, and another in 1987 with the Twins.

Another puzzling aspect of Blyleven's reputation is that he struck out many batters, and did so with a curveball commonly referenced as the greatest of all time. Rob Neyer rated Blyleven's curveball third behind only Sandy Koufax and Mordecai "Three Finger" Brown. Blyleven is listed fifth above in career strikeouts, but he finished third at the end of his career, only recently surpassed by Roger Clemens and Walter Johnson.

Overall we have a candidate with 287 wins, excellent peripherals, longevity, and a famous pitch. Of all pitchers with more career wins, only Tommy John and Bobby Mathews are not in the Hall (and Mathews' totals were helped by playing in the National Association, a marginal major league). I refer again to the shutout totals. Every pitcher with more than 50 shutouts is in the Hall, with the exception of Blyleven. Ultimately, his selection would not disparage the Hall in any way. He deserves it.

Rating Roger Clemens

2005-12-12T10:41:00.000-08:00

In comparing careers among pitchers, there are primarily two useful statistics that hold value over the rest. One is a pitcher's record of wins and losses, and the second is his ERA+. ERA+ takes a pitcher's ERA and compares it against the league average, adjusted for home park. This adjustment is crucial because otherwise pitchers who pitched in pitcher friendly eras would always rate above pitchers from hitter friendly eras.

We leave dead-ball eras pitchers out of the discussion for the time being. Pitchers prior to 1920 pitched in conditions enormously more favorable to pitchers than today. We can adjust for value versus the league, but it becomes complicated when the raw totals of innings pitched remain the same. It is simply easier to rack up innings in pitcher friendly environments, and we have enough problems dealing with the issue when comparing the 1960s versus the 1990s. So for the sake of sanity, we deal with the period covering 1920 to today.

Career Value

Roger Clemens has won 341 games and lost 172, for a .665 winning percentage. Among modern pitchers, only Warren Spahn has more wins. The comparison between Clemens and Spahn perhaps provides the biggest challenge for Clemens. Warren Spahn practically pitched until he was dragged from the mound kicking and screaming. Spahn won 20+ games thirteen times in his career, including six in a row, and a 23-7 mark when he was 42 years old. Clemens by comparison went 13-8, albeit with a more impressive ERA. While Spahn racked up huge numbers of complete games, Clemens compiled better ERAs. Spahn had two great seasons in 1947 and '53, and in the rest of his career pitched with insane consistancy. Clemens finished with an ERA 25% than league average sixteen times in his career. By comparison, Spahn did so four times.

For Spahn, we have 22 more wins (363 to 341) and 264 more complete games. More telling though is that the shutout margin is much closer, 63 to 46. Spahn compiled more complete games because finishing starts was normal at that time. In Clemens' era, managers will use their ace reliever, as a fresh reliever is less likely to give up runs than a tired starter. Of course, finishing starts probably contributed to Spahn's lower ERAs. There is really no easy way around this issue. Take your pick.

The second challenge is Lefty Grove. Grove pitched less than Clemens, but more effectively. Grove led the American League in ERA nine times. Grove won 20+ games eight times, and is one of only three modern pitchers to win 30 games in a season. Grove's ERA+ is better, and his win/loss percentage is higher. The one advantage Clemens has is longevity, as Grove finished his career in essentially a Sunday starter role. However, Grove did not reached the majors until 25, as he was trapped in the International League (the league operated independently at the time). Grove pitched well in the minors, and many argue that his success there indicates he was a good pitcher before he reached the majors. The only thing Clemens really has in this argument is longevity.

Clemens stands above the rest in the field. Pedro Martinez has a better ERA+ than any other pitcher in history, but pitched over 2,000 less innings than Clemens, and 1,000 less than any serious candidate besides Sandy Koufax. Koufax too pitched brilliantly, but had a short career and his ERA+ is less than Clemens anyway. Randy Johnson is perhaps as good, but a poor start of Johnson's career leaves him lacking in career totals.

Peak Value

A more difficult case comes when comparing pitchers at their best. Clemens is a great pitcher, but longevity adds a great deal of his value. Again, we will take ERA+. Here are the five best consecutive years for Clemens and a pitcher of great peak value, Sandy Koufax:

Clemens: 176, 115, 142, 226, 176
Koufax: 143, 161, 187, 160, 190

It may surprise readers to learn that Clemens had three seasons with a better ERA+ than Sandy Koufax. Koufax fans can in turn point to the differences in innings pitched, 323 in Koufax's best season compared to 264 in Clemens' best season. Of course Koufax pitched in Dodger Stadium in the 1960s, perhaps the best pitchers' environment since the advent of the lively ball. (This should not be a black mark overall on Koufax, whose win loss record on the road was equal). Koufax three times pitched above 300 innings, and had to retire due to arm pain. I don't think the advantage in innings pitched placed Koufax above Clemens.

Clemens has strong competition from three modern contemporaries, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux and Pedro Martinez. All three at their five year peaks rate higher than Clemens in terms of allowing earned runs. However, there is a problem, and this deflates Clemens as well. If there are a group of pitchers that all come from the same era, it is quite possible that the success is not entirely due to the pitchers, but from the conditions. I would speculate that the strong hitters' era of the 1990s created extremes of variation in pitching performances, and this elevates that group of pitchers.

Lefty Grove again takes part in this argument. Grove's best five year stretch saw him gather ERA+'s of 155, 151, 185, 219 and 159. Amazingly, he compiled a second, equal run five years later. Both periods were slighly better than Clemens' best run, and remember that his first came from 1928-32, an excellent hitters' era. The first run saw Grove's win-loss record inflated from playing on the Connie Mack A's, and the second run saw Grove's record diminished from playing on a poorer hitting Red Sox team. By the time Ted Williams arrived, Grove was on his way out.

Looking over the numbers, I see no other conclusion. Lefty Grove is the greatest pitcher in modern history. His career statistics rate among the best, and his peak numbers are clearly better. For argument's sake, here's my top five, more subjective than anything.

1. Lefty Grove
2. Roger Clemens
3. Greg Maddux
4. Sandy Koufax
5. Randy Johnson

A Critical Look at Wilkerson vs. Soriano

2005-12-10T05:01:00.000-08:00

This week, the Washington Nationals traded Brad Wilkerson, Terrmel Sledge and minor league pitcher Armando Galarraga to the Texas Rangers for Alfonso Soriano. In a way, this trade well illustrates the value of critical statistics when evaluating trades. Soriano is a perennial All-Star, having made the A.L. squad each of the last four seasons. Wilkerson has never made an All-Star team. However, Wilkerson has earned more win shares the last two seasons. Is Wilkerson a perpetually underrated player for whom the Rangers bilked the Nats? Or are we missing something on Soriano?

Warning: The following contains a healthy number of statistics. If you are not in the digestive mood, feel free to skip down to the summary.

Hitting

A quick glance at the triple crown statistics (BA/HR/RBI) shows a .248/11/54 line for Wilkerson, compared to a .268/36/104 line for Soriano. That looks like a tremendous edge for Soriano. However, let's look at the deeper numbers. Wilkerson drew 84 walks compared to just 33 for Soriano. That gives Wilkerson an On Base Percentage edge of .351 to .309. Both are just about even in doubles, while Wilkerson hit five more triples. Both players strike out frequently, but ground into few double plays. Oddly, given Soriano's power edge, Wilkerson draws more intentional passes.

Let's look at Runs Created. For those of you unfamiliar with the stat, runs created attempts to summarize all of a hitter's batting accomplishments into a single line. The concept is drawn from linear weights, and is at least 90-95% accurate. Soriano created 99 runs, compared to 79 for Wilkerson. Since Wilkerson played in less games, we should also look at RC/27. This essentially takes Runs Created per game, and expresses it with the idea of what a team of this player would score per game. It's 5.58 for Soriano compared with 4.78 for Wilkerson.

In case I lost some of you with the last paragraph, let me simplify. Soriano creates more runs than Wilkerson. A team of nine Sorianos would score a seventh of a run more than a team of nine Wilkersons. That is not insignificant. However, here we drag into the meat of the discussion. Soriano played his home games in The Ballpark in Arlington, an excellent hitters' park. Wilkerson played in RFK Stadium, perhaps the most difficult hitters' park in baseball.

In 72* American League games, teams scored an average of 5.53 runs per game in Texas. In 72 National League games, teams scored an average of 3.79 runs per game in Washington. These are staggering figures. Soriano provided runs to his team at barely above an average clip. Wilkerson created a run more a game than average. The home/road splits display the disparities. Wilkerson's batting average rose 21 points on the road, and his slugging average rose 19 points. One more thing I would like to note is that Wilkerson absolutely crushes the Ball at Citizens Bank Park, the only hitter friendly park in the division.

Soriano hit .315 at home, but only .224 on the road. Away from Texas he hit just 11 home runs, posted a .265 On Base Percentage and .374 slugging percentage. Soriano's OBP is low overall. When it comes from the benefit of a strong hitters' park, it's a red flag. Among MLB players with 200 or more road ABs, Soriano ranks 206th out of 229.

(*Most statisticians use only league games and not interleague games, explaining why 72 home games is used and not 81)

Baserunning

Hitting is one thing. Baserunning however is less effected by park effects. In a low run-scoring environment, speed becomes a better asset. This season Soriano stole 30 bases in 32 tries. This is an absolutely tremendous figure. Using linear weights (one steal usually adds 1/3 of a run, while a failure costs 2/3 a run), we estimate Soriano added 8.5 runs to the Rangers' season. Wilkerson stole 8 bases in 18 tries, a low percentage. He cost his team four runs over the course of a season. That works out to about one win over the course of a season. It doesn't sound like much, but it can decide a pennant. The question is whether Soriano's advantage in speed will negate his loss in offensive productivity.

The argument used to end here, but we have another tool available. The 2006 Bill James Handbook for the first time provides baserunning data. Given a chance to take an extra base on a hit, Soriano did so 46% of the time. In raw numbers, Soriano took an extra base 21 times, and was not once thrown out on the basepaths. Wilkerson took the extra base 24 times, at a 49% rate. He was thrown out once. Soriano scored 31% of the time he reached base, compared to 29% for Wilkerson.

I think this puts the value of basestealing in it's context. Soriano scored 2% more often than Wilkerson, despite stealing 28 more bases, having more bats behind him, and playing in a hitters' haven.

Fielding

Soriano plays second base, while Wilkerson plays wherever in the outfield the Nationals need him. Wilkerson's natural position is left field. Soriano led American League second basemen with 21 errors. His range factor ranked in the middle of the pack. Among AL second basemen, Soriano ranked 12th in Fielding Win Shares. Defensive statistics are unreliable, so let me note Soriano's Rangers had a collective ERA+ of 90, below average even accounting for their home park. Wilkerson played more center field than usual this season. His range factor rates above average and he made only three errors. Wilkerson's range factor rates above average in left field as well. Wilkerson ranked 8th in all N.L. Outfielders in fielding win shares this season. The Nationals ERA+ was 103, slightly above average. Respective to their positions, Wilkerson is a better fielder.

Summary

Of course, a strong hitting second baseman is harder to find than a strong hitting outfielder. After the trade, the Nats indicated that they wish to move Soriano to left field. That makes this trade extremely puzzling. Wilkerson is a better left fielder than Soriano, straight up. That Washington threw in another outfielder and pitching prospect is madness. Wilkerson is a better hitter, and Soriano's edge in basestealing does not negate that. Even if the Nats move Vidro and play Soriano at second, I am unsure if this trade improves their team. As Wilkerson's frequent trips across the outfield have indicated, the team has struggled finding outfielders. The Rangers still need pitching. However, I think this trade was too good for them to pass up.

If you participate in a fantasy league, note that Wilkerson's power numbers will increase and Soriano's will decline.

The Sad Tale of the Florida Marlins

2005-12-07T19:51:00.000-08:00

Firesale.

Mention that word to baseball fans and they know exactly what you are talking about. The wholesale selling of players, either to cut payroll, rebuild, or some other project. Most teams trade off their best players to bring in younger talent, when their aging base makes continuing their run harmful to the future of the franchise. Sometimes a team trades players in order to meet a budget, when their payroll exceeds their expenses.

Generally teams that conduct firesales are punting the next season. The object is to reap greater rewards in the future by becoming worse in the short term. The Cleveland Indians accomplished this to great success. In 2002, the Indians traded off several talented players, including Bartolo Colon, Tim Drew, Paul Shuey, Ricardo Rincon, among others. In return, their acquisitions included Covelli "Coco" Crisp, Travis Hafner, Ben Broussard, Cliff Lee and Grady Sizemore. By sacrificing for the short term, the Indians have created a pennant contender.

The rewards of a rebuilding project are obvious. However, the question must be posed regarding how far is too far? At what point does a franchise owe it to its fanbase to place a minimally competitive team on the field? Publications such as Baseball Prospectus tout the merits of placing your prospects on the field and seeing what they can do, rather than using stop gap veterans on a team unlikely to contend. After all, what's the point of wasting everyone's time? It is a noble idea, but the 2003 Tigers demonstrated how it can go terribly wrong. The Tigers sent AA prospects to the mound and starting lineup, and lost 119 games for their trouble. An absolutely terrible season can do tremendous long term damage to a franchise.

The Marlins have just completed one of the most ruthless firesales in Major League Baseball history. One assumes it is completed because the Marlins have nothing else to sell, beyond franchise cornerstones Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, and lefty hurler Ron Villone. Paul Lo Duca, Carlos Delgado, Luis Castillo, Mike Lowell, Juan Pierre, Josh Beckett, and Guillermo Mota have been traded. Todd Jones, Antonio Alfonseca, A.J. Burnett, Alex Gonzalez, Juan Encarnacion, Jeff Conine and Damion Easley are free agents. And Jim Mecir has retired.

Right now the Marlins 40 man roster consists of Cabrera, Willis and Villone, and a collection of unproven bench bats and minor leaguers. The entire current Marlins' 40 man roster earned 74 win shares last season. Some of them, particularly Josh Willingham, Joe Dillon and Jeremy Hermida, are quite intriguing. The problem is filling out a roster with such players. Here is a hypothetical lineup.

C- Matt Treanor
1B- Mike Jacobs/Jason Stokes
2B- Joe Dillon
SS- Josh Wilson
3B- Miguel Cabrera
LF- Josh Willingham
CF- Chris Aguila
RF- Jeremy Hermida

Right off the bat you are looking at two black holes, several rookies, and one star. Their rotation is worse. After Dontrelle Willis, you have a vast collection of pitchers with little experience above AA. It is not uncommon to see a AA pitcher explode and zoom into the Majors. But you can not count on four of them. More likely, you're going to have a handful of pitchers show that they are completely unready for the Majors. A few of them may place an ERA in the 5-6+ range. Then your problem exacerbates, as you need to keep throwing more starters, sometimes younger guys, into the mix to fill the innings. Those arms get tired, and so on. Of course, the offseason is not over, and the Fish can make some moves. But who is going to rush to play on a bad team? The Marlins can hope for little more than hangers on and guys who need to re-establish themselves, and it looks unlikely that the Marlins are willing to spend for the privilege.

Jeffrey Loria and the Marlins have tanked this season, and have done so in spectacular fashion. Some perspective is needed on this. In 1997, the Florida Marlins won the World Series. Afterwards, owner Wayne Huizenga claimed enormous (and possibly non-existant) losses, and sold off most of the team. The team lost 108 games the next season. Attendance, which had peaked at 2.3 Million in '97, fell by nearly 1 million fans in two seasons. Huizenga sold the team to John Henry. Henry tried and failed to garner a publicly funded stadium, and sold the club to Jeffrey Loria. In 2002, attendance reached a low point of 813,118, barely edging the Montreal Expos, then seen as a dead team walking. Shockingly, the team won the World Series again in 2003. Attendance rebounded to 1.8 Million in 2005, but still rates 27th in baseball, ahead of only the Royals, Devil Rays and Pirates.

Before the firesale, Loria and company announced the team was seeking relocation, since they could not receive a publicly funded stadium. The city of Miami did not respond well to the first firesale of 1998. This second version marks the death-knell of the Marlins in Miami. This team is going to lose at least 100 games this season. The club has destroyed any good will towards its fanbase, who will undoubtably attend many fewer games this season. Attendance under 1 million fans is a legitimate possiblity (sounds a lot like the movie "Major League," doesn't it?). This could be a very, very good team two or three years down the road. But at that point, the Miami fans are unlikely to desire to spend their hard earned money on a Loria owned product. The team will move, and some city will be happy with the results. But it is a miserable way to treat a potentially good market. The sad thing is, it's all over the want of a few more luxury boxes.

Minor League Stats

2005-07-15T17:17:00.000-07:00

Looking over minor league statistics, I am dismayed by the lack of quality statistics available. For major league players, multitudes of statistics are available in an instant. Everything from the mundane to the sabermetric for hitters. For pitchers, you can find what batters hit against them, how their extra base hits shaped up, and other information. And fielding statistics include range factor and zone rating.

For minor leaguers, you are lucky to find anything more than a basic stat line. No home/road or lefty/righty splits for batters. No information on extra base hits given up by pitchers. No fielding statistics whatsoever. Carlos Ruiz is a highly regarded defensive catcher. A search for statistics on Milb.com would reveal no information besides the fact that he is a catcher. What is frustrating is that the information is there. Milb.com collects game logs for every minor league game in organized baseball, all the way down to the rookie leagues. If some enterprising individual wanted to collect a full recap of games by position, fielding positions, statistical splits and even situational statistics, they could do so with the information provided. But none of us has that kind of time on their hands.

Given the capabilities of software and the relative ease of programming such things, Milb.com could provide much better statistics than they do.

On a similar note, those of us who are familiar with Bill James might be familiar with the frustration of finding quality major league statistics. A movement arose with the purpose of making statistics freely available, with volunteers collecting them. I worry that with statistics becoming big business, we are facing a similar situation with the minor leagues. Statistics are available, for those willing to pay for them.

Fox's Advertising Blitz

2005-07-13T17:54:00.000-07:00

Fox Deceives Millions

So basically the giant banner unvieled in the middle of the All-Star game was a pre-planned advertisement from Chevy. Fox's obsession with selling virtually every aspect of the show is ruining the baseball experience, at least in my view. In two days we were treated to the Century 21 Home Run Derby, the Taco Bell "throw five strikes in 30 seconds competition," a giant Chevy banner that the Fox announcers pretended was unplanned, and a pre-game promo tying in the All-Stars with the Fantastic Four.

MLB badly needs to find a new television sponser when the deal expires, one who will strip baseball to its roots and promote the game itself. Fox may make a truckload of money on the deal, but the declining ratings indicate that fans are not alltogether happy with the Fox television presentation. Meanwhile, live baseball attendance is booming at nearly all levels of competition. Fans want to see baseball, and if the networks supplied it I think they could be pleasantly surprised.

2005-07-12T15:15:00.000-07:00

Let me add some more thoughts regarding the Home Run Derby. First off, I think the idea of a home run derby is fine. The concept has existed since the 1950s, and always draws suitable fan interest. However, last night's home run derby lasted nearly three and a half hours, exceeding its allotted time by well over an hour. By the end, the entire contest had grown tired and tedious. Truthfully, I would not have watched until the end had Abreu not been in the Finals.

From a practical standpoint, MLB needs to shorten the derby. Ivan Rodriguez and Abreu each got 30 outs by the end of the night. In the first round, eight batters got ten outs apiece. Combine that with the home runs, and you are looking at around 120 balls in play. Not counting foul balls, it is usual to see around 50-60 in an entire regulation game. MLB needs to shorten the outs given to each player in the first round to five or so. That would allow the first round to proceed quickly, and once you narrow the field, then give them more outs and add some drama to the event. Second, they need to eliminate a round. This is not a head to head battle, and for that reason it is entirely unnecessary to go from eight to four to two. Make the second round the finals.

It would be nice to see MLB bring back the Old Timers game as well.

Bobby Abreu

2005-07-12T05:53:00.000-07:00

It just would not be the Bobby Abreu Appreciation Society if we did not spend 5 minutes to appreciate Bobby Abreu after that Home Run Derby performance. I think Abreu has finally broken through to Superstar status.

Phillies Revisited

2005-07-08T18:53:00.000-07:00

Last February, I took a look at the players in the organization competing for roster slots. Many of those players ended up at AAA. I took a job that has me scoring frequent games at AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, so I have seen several of these players on many occasions. Let's look at some of the notables and see how they are doing.

Eude Brito struck out 84 batters and walked 42 in 98 IP at AA Reading last season. He's been touted as a bullpen candidate, and the stuff is there. But the 'pen is crowded, and Brito will likely land at AAA this season. He's not quite ready.

Eude Brito is fast becoming a personal favorite. Here are his numbers so far this season...

4-1, 4.92 ERA, 75 IP, 69 H, 10 HRs, 30 BBs, 62 Ks.

Not too bad. Good K rate, but walks too many guys, and gives up a fair share of home runs. But he has been pressed into starting duty, so one might expect his statistics to take a hit. However, here are his numbers in the outings that I have seen him personally...

1-0, 0.50 ERA, 18 IP, 15 H, 2 HRs, 6 BBs, 20 Ks.

Perhaps Brito struggles in road outings. I do not have those splits unfortunately. Still, Brito's K rates are very good, and he is an excellent candidate to become a lefty bullpen arm in the majors.

Gavin Floyd you may have heard of. He looked shaky in AAA, and I would like to see him receive half a season of AAA ball before he hits the Majors. There's alot here to like, and Gavin Floyd should have his spot in the rotation before long. Floyd is an exciting prospect.

Ugh. 14 AAA starts, with 38 BBs in 74 IP, along with 54 Ks, and only five home runs surrendered. The missing statistic is the thirteen hit batsmen, already a new Red Barons team record. Floyd seems to lose control at times, in one start hitting two batters consecutively with the bases loaded. Long time readers know what I think of the pressure argument, but sometimes it really seems like he is struggling because of pressure. For what it is worth, Dallas Green was on hand to scout Floyd's last start. Floyd has performed well in some starts, and I hope he gets it together. As of now he is not MLB ready.

Aaron Fultz comes to Philly after a season as the Twins' bullpen lefty. Fultz's ERA tends to fall on the high side, and he is likely to see AAA this season. His making the club depends on how much new manager Charlie Garner likes his lefties.

Charlie MANUEL. How did that typo sneak in there. Fultz made the club, and despite my dismal expectations after a bad outing in St. Louis, has become the best lefty on the club.

Pedro Liriano is a Rule V draftee from the Milwaukee Brewers. Liriano struggled in AAA, but he boasts a career K/9 rate of 8.09 in the Minors. He is a player worth watching, but with a full bullpen, it will be interesting to see if Philly gives him the opportunity. If he makes the switch to the pen, he could be a big surprise.

The organization is trying Liriano as a starter again. He has been a good AAA starter, but nothing that screams future star. His performances have improved the last month or two, so there are some encouraging signs. All I said this Spring still applies.

Brett Myers struggled last year, and while he is almost assured a spot in the rotation, I believe he has options left. It is conceiveable that Myers could miss out, but that assumes he has a terrible spring AND Gavin Floyd dominates hitters. I do think Myers will figure everything out this season, and he should be a pleasant surprise to Philly fans in 2005.

Pleasant surprise? Nailed it.

Franklin Perez missed 2003 with an injury, but posted strong numbers in AA this season. His fastball and low Home Run rates merit him some consideration, but I doubt he will see the big club this season. Keep an eye on Perez in AAA.

Keep an eye on Perez indeed, because he has that closer makeup. Well, as long as you prefer your closers resemble LaTroy Hawkins. 25 strikeouts and 24 walks in 41 innings pitched, with four losses and a 5.27 ERA. And he is STILL the AAA closer. I cringe every time he enters the game.

Rob Tejeda posted good looking ratios in AA Reading. 133 Ks and 59 BBs in just 150 IP. The problem, 29 home runs. Still, he has serious potential, and he is worth keeping an eye on in the minors.

Or keeping an eye on in the Majors, where he landed after a month at AAA. I actually have not seen Tejeda pitch. His ratios are not tremendous with Philly, but the high K rate at a young age indicates that there is a good arm there. Tejeda's stock has definately risen this season.

Mike Bacsik (NRI) has seen limited time in the Majors, but has seen most of his time in AAA over the last four seasons. Bacsik lives off of his control. He does not strikeout many batters. I doubt Bacsik will make it as a starter, and the Indians in fact used him primarily in relief in Oklahoma. Bascik is a long-shot to make the team, but some team could find him useful in the bullpen.

I like Bacsik. As said, he doesn't walk many guys and does not strike out many. He gets hit once in awhile, but he works fast. One noteable game saw Bacsik pitch eight shutout innings against Syracuse, in 45 degree weather. I was greatful for his ability to pitch the game in less than two hours.

Clay Condrey (NRI) is another minor league pitcher who does not surrender walks, but strikes out few batters as well. At 28, he is no longer a prospect, and 23 home runs in 155 IP is not very good. Condrey is likely as good as he will be in Triple A. He'll get his work in and likely return to Scranton.

Your average AAA starter, currently injured.

Martire Franco (NRI) posted a good season in AA Reading, compiling a 3.30 ERA in 85 IP. The Phillies moved Franco to the bullpen after two failed AA seasons as a starter. The bullpen move revived Franco's career, and it is interesting to see how he performs this season. He will likely move up to AAA Scranton, and from there we will see if he has a shot at the Majors.

A live arm with some control issues. Still, Franco does not give up many home runs, and the potential is still there. He runs into some trouble, but a few of those can be attributed to Gene Lamont (AAA manager) trying to keep him in games too long. Keep an eye here.

Dan Giese (NRI) boasts an 8.34 K/9 rate in the minors, along with a 1.73 BB/9 rate. Giese is not prone to the long-ball. As for traditional categories, Giese posted a 2.81 ERA in AAA Scranton, along with a 12-5 record. I see no reason why Giese could not succeed in the Majors. I doubt he will get a job right away, but I hope he sees the big club at some point during the season.

Not homer prone? What stats was I looking at? Giese gave up nine home runs in 38 innings, but struck out 28 and walked just one. Again there was potential here, but Giese announced his retirement suddenly last month. I hope he reconsiders.

Carlos Ruiz excited Philly fans eager for a catching prospect, posting a .484 slugging percentage at AA Reading. Ruiz brings a good glove to the table, along with some pop. Unfortunately, he's 25, old for a prospect, and he's not incredibly disciplined at the plate. ZipS predicts a .227/.264/.353 line, so he is clearly not ready. Ruiz will see a year of AAA, and that will determine his future. Although if Pratt or Lieberthal falls to injury, he could see a look. I don't see Ruiz as a big time prospect, but we've been burned before (Johnny Estrada).

Ruiz suffered a serious leg injury in late April, causing him to miss over a month. Ruiz started slow before the injury, but has heated up, now hitting .310/.352/.468 in AAA. Defensively, he is ready for the majors. I expect Ruiz to become the new backup catcher next season in Philly. With Mike Lieberthal's defensive skills in decline, a backup glove is just what the Phillies need.

John Castellano (NRI) is a minor league veteran. Castellano posted a .340/.392/.557 line at AA Reading last season. He's 27, and his defense is not especially good. Still, his bat has some pop, and he can play first base or the outfield corners. John Sickels thinks he can hit .260-.275 at the major league level. He could make a useful utility player, but the Phillies do not have a real opening. He should make a useful player at AAA Scranton.

Castellano almost always DH's at AAA. His catcher's glove is currently collecting cobwebs. With a .330 OBP and .372 slugging percentage, Castellano is unlikely to attract any considerable attention in the near future.

Tim Gradoville (NRI) has a line of .221/.293/.297 after 3 minor league seasons, none above A ball. Quite honestly, major league teams need warm bodies to catch all the pitchers at Spring Training. I can not imagine any other reason for Gradoville to see a NRI.

Have catcher's glove, will travel. With Ruiz on the shelf and Gene Lamont unwilling to use Castellano or Chris Coste to catch, Gradoville became the new backup catcher at AAA. Gradoville only saw 19 at bats in AAA. In AA Reading, he is hitting just .234, along with a .284 slugging percentage. Again, there is nothing to get excited about here.

A.J. Hinch (NRI) saw several seasons of major league ball, mainly as a backup. He spent most of the last two seasons in AAA, with Toledo and then with Scraton. Hinch hit poorly last year, posting a .230/.310/.294 line. He clearly boasts better ability, although he's never hit well enough to justify a major league roster spot. At 30, Hinch is your standard career back-up catcher. He'll likely land in AAA again this season.

Hinch failed to hit with Carlos Ruiz on the shelf, and now sports a .247/.322/.338 line in 154 AAA at bats. Hinch may be nearing the end of the line here, in terms of ever reaching the majors again.

Ryan Howard is a player most Philly fans are familiar with. He is trade bait at this point, but no team has a pressing need for a first baseman right now. The Phillies will probably not use Howard as a left fielder (wisely, IMO), and I doubt they will keep him on the big league roster just as a super-pinch hitter. I think Philly fans are over-estimating Howard at any rate. He might not post a great OBP or batting average just yet. Howard will hit some bombs in Spring Training, and likely start the season at AAA.

Wow. Howard demolished AAA pitching, thanks to pitchers having no reason whatsoever to challenge him. .371/.467/.690 at AAA Scranton. He is currently struggling a bit in Philly, but part of that is likely a period of adjustment. Time will tell. Many have asked me what the Phillies should do about the Howard/Thome situation, and I honestly have no clue.

Chris Coste (NRI) is listed as an infielder at MLB.com's page, but The Baseball Cube stat site lists Coste as a catcher. Coste is a similar talent to Jim Rushford, as he played Indy ball until the age of 27. He's hit well throughout his AAA career, with a .309 career batting average and .457 slugging percentage, mostly in AAA. He could post serviceable numbers as an MLB backup, although I have no clue what defense he offers. Coste is the kind of player that makes one stratch his head when a team gives Einar Diaz another year.

I am unsure if Coste has caught at all this year. Coste did hit well enough however to make the AAA All-Star game, so more power to him. Coste is a well rounded hitter and as for his defense, he has very sure hands at third base.

Anthony Medrano (NRI) is a veteran minor league shortstop. At the age of 30, Medrano has twelve years of minor league ball under his belt, although he has never reached the Majors. Medrano hit well in Edmonton last season, posting a .308 batting average along with a .372 On Base Percentage. However, that was the Pacific Coast League, and Medrano's track record is not as sparkling. Given the presence of Polanco and Tomas Perez, Medrano will not see the big leagues. However, he could make a good starting shortstop for the AAA Red Barons.

Another player who gives a far different impression live. Medrano is hitting .237/.307/.318 on the season. However, in the 57 plate appearances I have seen, Medrano hit .341/.453/.439. I would tend to trust the full numbers on this one. Medrano has become the team's primary second baseman.

Jose Offerman (NRI) is the Phillies' most interesting Non Roster Invitee. Offerman posted a .363 OBP last season for the Minnesota Twins. However, it is questionable if Offerman can keep up that kind of production. ZipS predicts a .325 OBP, along with a .226 batting average. It is hard to justify that kind of production from a player who provides little defensive value at this stage of his career. Still, at least it would not be as maddening as the Dave Hollins acquisition a couple seasons ago.

I take that back. After watching Jose Offerman pinch hit for Marlon Byrd, it was every bit as maddening.

Danny Sandoval (NRI) arrives as a minor league free agent. Sandoval stagnated in the minors, getting stuck in AA ball for three and a galf seasons. Sandoval posted a .319/.365/.449 line in Tulsa, so it looks like he's finally ready for AAA ball. Sandoval is 25, so he's certainly no prospect. Still, if he can maintain his production, he can make a decent utility player. He's not much of a step down from Tomas Perez, if projections are to be believed. Like Medrano, he will likely see time with the AAA Red Barons.

Ready for AAA? Sandoval is the AAA batting leader now that Ryan Howard has been called up to the majors, hitting .349 with a .391 OBP and .481 slugging percentage. Sandoval lacks plate discipline, but at this point I see no reason why he could not make a serviceable utility infielder in the majors.

Marlon Byrd struggled, to say the least. No one knows quite what went wrong. Looking at his stats, he suffered a minimal loss in his walk rate, and a minimal decline in his isolated power. Most of his drop was batting average related. I truly believe Byrd will come back. He's hit .300 throughout most of his professional career, and his work-ethic is top notch. Byrd's a personal favorite, so I am cheering for him.

Endy F'n Chavez?

Shane Victorino arrived via the Rule V draft from the Los Angeles Dodgers. Victorino hit .328/.375/.584 in AA Jacksonville, but struggled against AAA Las Vegas. Victorino is reputed to have a good defensive glove, but his bat is not there as of yet. ZipS predicts a .253/.308/.407 line for Victorino. That's liveable, but I would prefer Marlon Byrd in center field. Still, if Lofton and Michaels can provide enough platoon offense, a defensive player is a bigger need. This is probably the player to watch, in terms of roster construction.

I love Victorino. This is a player who can do it all. He can hit a home run in one at bat and then lay down a bunt base hit the next. He steals bases and plays excellent defense in center field. This is exactly the kind of player a club can carry for their fifth outfielder. He is just an exciting player to watch.

Mark Budzinski (NRI) is a career minor league outfielder. Budzinski hit an acceptable .283/.345/.429 in AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre last season. He's 31, so he has no prospect status whatsoever. ZipS sees a .258/.331/.358 line in the Majors for Budzinski, so he's not a guy who would kill your team as a week-long fill in, if Pat Burrell or someone suffered a nagging injury. His defense is considered very good as well. Budzinski will not make the club, but he is a useful AAA player.

I would simply repeat that line.

Jorge Padilla (NRI) looked like a prospect at one point, but his stock has fallen. Padilla hit just .253 with a .343 slugging percentage last season in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. At 25, Padilla has little time left. He has not managed a good season since his A ball campaign in Clearwater. Padilla will garner little more than a quick look before he ends up back at AAA.

Recently rejoined the Red Barons, and still swinging at everything.

Jim Rushford (NRI) is another minor league hitter, in the vein of Mark Budzinski. Rushford holds a career .308 minor league batting average, along with a .466 slugging percentage, and a decent walk rate. Rushford got a late start, as he played Independent Ball until the age of 27. He hit well his first season in AAA, but did not hit in a 23 game trial with Milwaukee, and he has not received another shot. He is rated as just a fair outfielder, and with his profile, he will need to put up some eye-popping numbers to get another look.

Same as Budzinski, Rushford is an excellent AAA hitter, hitting .326/.384/.461 in AAA. His defense is not very good and he lacks true home run power, so an MLB job is a longshot. Still, he's an excellent professional hitter who can reach a AAA All-Star game or two.

Mid-season

2005-07-08T06:34:00.000-07:00

After a few stop and go starts, I decided to try and run the blog full steam. Will I stick with it? We should know in a few weeks.

Recently I came across a copy of Sports Illustrated, touting its mid-season baseball edition. I contemplated buying it before a moment of arrogance struck me. What could it possibly tell me that I already know? So I decided to set out and write a mid-season report of my own.

First, the hardware. Who are the top performers of the season thus far? All statements regarding statistics are believed to be accurate at the time I wrote them.

AL MVP: Brian Roberts, Baltimore Orioles. In determining my candidate for the Most Valuable Player, I pay almost no attention to a team's placement in the standings. I pay no attention to clubhouse chemistry or vague statements of team leadership. It is not that I believe they do not exist, but the media's statements and determinations of them are many times unreliable. With all that out of the way, Roberts is the clear winner. He leads the league in batting average, slugging percentage, on base percentage and runs created. In addition to his accomplishments at the plate, he plays good defense at second base, making him all the more valuable.

While Roberts is a surprise this season, in retrospect his emergence as the league's top second baseman is not a shock. Roberts cracked 50 doubles last season, and doubles are a sign of emerging power in a young player. Expect some regression in the second half, but there is real improvement here.

AL Cy Young: Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays. Halladay leads all AL pitchers in opponents' batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS (on base plus slugging), and leads the league in Earned Run Average. Halladay rates among the leaders in nearly every category. This decision essentially boils down to Halladay and Mark Buehrle of the White Sox. I chose Halladay because he has more wins, a lower ERA, more strikeouts, fewer walks, and lower opponent averages.

AL Rookie of the Year: Chris Young, Texas Rangers. This race has been neck and neck between Young and Tadahito Iguchi, the White Sox' Japanese import. Since foreign players are eligible for the award, I place no consideration against them. If you think they do not belong, lobby MLB to change the rules. That said, Iguchi has cooled off, hitting the league average but providing excellent defense along the way. Chris Young has compiled an 8-5 record along with a 3.80 ERA in a difficult pitchers' park.

AL Manager of the Year: Ozzie Guillen, Chicago White Sox. Small ball works? Ozzie Guillen has his team on pace for 111 wins, a far cry from the .500 record most analysts (myself included) predicted for the club. While most attention focuses on Guillen's offensive strategies, true credit for their success lies with pitching and defense. The White Sox have allowed the least runs in baseball, no small feat considering their park is an excellent park for hitters.

Let me take a moment away from the conversation to warn against the wisdom of using park factors from a single season. Looking at the numbers, Citizens Bank Park is the most homer friendly park in baseball this season. However, Yankees Stadium, a park favorable to pitchers (except those who pitch for the Yankees apparently) is second. Camden Yards rates as an extreme pitchers' park so far, and Fenway Park also rates favorable to pitchers. Sometimes small sample of statistics give us these quirks, and we need more data to make a fair observation. The problem with Citizens Bank Park is not its home run tendencies as much as the pitchers stink.

Back to Guillen, it is notable that many managers who seemingly have nothing in common dominate the defensive end of the game. Earl Weaver, who shared none of Guillen's ideas regarding offense, ran amazing pitching staffs. The Athletics of recent years won in large part due to pitching. Many say that defense wins championships. It does, and so does offense. Ideally you want both. A team with great hitting and good pitching can win as easily as a team with good hitting and great pitching. I think this just illustrates the lack of true knowledge regarding fielding. Many attribute defensive success solely to pitching. They praise great fielders, but make no connection between those fielders and a pitcher's ERA. Over the lack decade, we have read much about Andruw Jones' terrific defense in center field. How many articles on the Braves' pitching or Leo Mazzone mention Andruw Jones? Surely the Braves keep developing great pitching because nothing ever hits the ground around Andruw Jones. Just some food for thought.

NL MVP: Derrek Lee, Chicago Cubs. Would the Cubs even be in the wild card chase if not for Derrek Lee? Lee leads the league in batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage, hits, and runs created. Along with his abilities at the plate, he was 10 stolen bases in twelve attempts.

NL Cy Young: Roger Clemens, Houston Astros. Clemens leads the lead in opponents' batting average, slugging percentage and earned run average. The issue here comes from win/loss records. Dontrelle Willis is second in ERA, and sports a 13-3 record. It would be easy enough to write this off as a simple matter of run support, but Willis has also earned four shutouts. To give you an idea of that significance, the last time any pitcher earned four shutouts over an entire SEASON was 2002, when A.J. Burnett pitched five (and underwent Tommy John surgery not long after). In the end though, Clemens has been more dominant against opposing hitters, and a 1.41 ERA in Minute Maid Park is extremely good.

NL Rookie of the Year: Clint Barmes, Colorado Rockies. Barmes is tough against opposing hitters, but not so tough against deer meat. As of this writing however, Barmes has more at bats than all but two Rookie candidates, and his offensive numbers are far superior, even taking Coors Field into account.

If Barmes does not return for a long time however, the field is wide open. Jason Ellison and Willy Tavares have a shot, as does Washington's Ryan Church. Barmes' teammate Garrett Atkins is in the race as well. In addition, Rockies' pitcher Jeff Francis now sports an 8-5 record along with a 4.74 ERA. That may not sound impressive, but we are talking about a Colorado pitcher. Keep an eye on Francis. He would be an A+ pitching prospect if he pitched anywhere outside of Colorado.

NL Manager of the Year: Bobby Cox, Atlanta Braves. Many times we look at a team's win/loss record in determining the best managers, and then take time to complain about the strategies they employ, and what we would have done differently. Many aspects of the job go unnoticed, such as handling young players. No team over the last fifteen years have handled young players as well as the Atlanta Braves. The Braves come up with a few players at a time, plug them into their system, and just keep winning. This year the Braves have brought in Ryan Langerhans, Juan Sosa, Kelly Johnson, Brian McCann, Kyle Davies, and Pete Orr, among others. And despite the team's inexperience, they lead the wild card chase by 3.5 games. Do NOT be surprised to see this team win the division yet again.

That covers the official offerings. Here are some unofficial awards...

Best Base stealer: Scott Podsednik, Chicago White Sox. Podsednik has compiled a .359 OBP and stolen 41 bases in 50 tries, for an 82% success rate. His .335 slugging percentage looks miniscule, but if you add 41 steals to his total bases, it would compute to a .438 slugging percentage. Podsednik is a full 13 bases in front of the next player in steals, and as long as he keeps his OBP high, he's a tremendous threat on the White Sox' offense.

Best Middle Reliever: Cliff Politte, Chicago White Sox. Politte has struck out 32 batters in 32.7 innings, with just nine walks. He has compiled a 1.10 ERA, and has allowed just one home run. Batters are hitting .139 against Politte, with a .207 OBP and .204 slugging percentage.

Minor League Hitter of the Year: Ryan Howard, Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Red Barons. Howard hit .371/.467/.690 while clubbing 16 home runs and 54 RBIs. If he did not have a future Hall of Famer ahead of him in the Phillies' organization, he would never again gaze upon a AAA ballpark

Minor League Pitcher of the Year: Zach Duke, Indianapolis Indians. Duke is 12-3 with a 2.92 ERA, 66 strikeouts and 23 walks in 108 innings. There are pitchers with better peripherals or ERA, but no one with the complete package. This is not a forward looking award, and in the absence of a strong candidate, who better than the minor league wins leader?

Julio Franco Career Revival Award: B.J. Surhoff, Baltimore Orioles. Once in awhile, you look at a player and see the end of the road. Then five years later you turn on your television, and he is still there! Surhoff turns 41 next month, but has compiled a .288 batting average and .432 slugging percentage for the Baltimore Orioles.

Least Valuable Player: Tony Womack, New York Yankees. It used to be that a team held the rights only to those players under its big league roster. If a player performed dramatically below expectations, the team was often stuck with him. Even when teams developed farm systems, news traveled slowly, and statistics were sometimes unavailable or hard to find. Finally in the 1980s, Bill James arrived and declared that yes, you can use minor league baseball statistics to predict performance, if you know how to adjust them.

Among qualified batters, Womack ranks second to last in OPS, ahead of only Washington's Christian Guzman. The difference is that while Guzman plays a key defensive position, Womack plays left field, where nearly anyone with a pulse can play half-respectively. Meanwhile, Mike Vento is hitting .322/.390/.534 in Columbus. Mitch Jones is hitting .316/.380/.599. Both can play left field, and I am certain both could slug better than Womack's current mark of .266. It is astounding that a team with a $200 Million payroll currently employs the worst outfielder to play Major League Baseball in quite some time.

Cy Yuk Award: Jose Lima, Kansas City Royals. It is difficult to pitch badly and yet pitch enough to qualify for an ERA title. After his game three performance in last year's divisional series, Los Angeles writers cried foul when the Dodgers did not retain Lima. Arriving back in Kansas City, Lima has allowed 19 home runs in 86.7 IP, striking out 42 and walking 32. Lima has compiled a 7.58 ERA and a 1-7 record along the way. His only win, fittingly enough, came against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

This season has provided us with numerous surprises in regards to the standings. The Yankees are far from the 110 win season some analysts predicted. The Washington Nationals are not only out of the cellar, they are also leading the NL East. The Chicago White Sox are on pace to win 110 games, and the St. Louis Cardinals have proven they are for real.

In the National League East, the Washington Nationals sat 4.5 games ahead as of Tuesday afternoon. The team has been led by a breakout season from 1B Nick Johnson, the arrival of OF Jose Guillen, continued production from OF Brad Wilkerson, and the relief pitching of closer Chad Cordero. Cordero owns a 1.22 ERA and a league leading 30 saves. The Nationals are currently 23-7 in one run games, and 30-11 at home. There are two things that stand out about the Nationals. A great deal of their success is the pitching of Chad Cordero, and they are taking advantage of RFK Stadium. The problem is that this team has allowed as many runs as it has scored, and they are playing over their heads. Chad Cordero is a young pitcher, and if the league's hitters catch up to him it could be trouble. Of course, with a four and a half game lead, their postseason run must be taken seriously. This team is eight games up in the race for a postseason berth.

The Atlanta Braves appear to mount the only serious challenge to the Nationals' division lead. Once again, the team is getting it done with contributions from their young players. The strength of the Braves has always been good home-grown talent. As long as Andruw Jones patrols center field, the pitching is in good shape. This is a team that seems to lack hitting, but they are generally solid throughout, with few real holes. The Braves have the best run-differential in the division, and given their history I expect them to mount a serious challenge at a division crown, especially if they make a trade at the deadline.

In the Central, the Cardinals have once again wrapped up the race early. Only a few teams in history have overcome a 12.5 game deficit. Do they have what it takes to win the World Series? Fans forget that the Cardinals' post-season run last season came without the services of their best starter, Chris Carpenter. If he is healthy this time, the Cards have a better shot. Mark Mulder is a name, but provides little that Woody Williams could not contribute last season. The offense remains strong, as David Eckstein is an upgrade over Edgar Renteria, and Yadier Molina is learning how to hit big-league pitching. They would rate as the underdog in a series rematch, but I think they have a better chance this time around.

The wild card looks more interesting, as the Cubs, Astros and Brewers all stand a half game apart. The Cubs hope to make a run with their staff of Greg Maddux, Carlos Zambrano, Kerry Wood and Mark Prior. The Astros have Roger Clemens, Roy Oswalt and Andy Pettitte at their disposal, along with the hitting of Lance Berkman and Morgan Ensberg. The Brewers are contending thanks to the hitting of Carlos Lee, Lyle Overbay and Brady Clark, and they enjoy a trio of pitchers with sub 3.50 ERAs (Victor Santos, Chris Capuano and Ben Sheets). These three will battle it out, and the way things work the victor should have a shot at the wild card.

In the National League West, the Los Angeles Dodgers have suffered a slew of injuries, recently losing Jeff Kent and J.D. Drew. Kent is expected back soon, but as of this writing Jose Valentin, Cesar Izturis, Ricky Ledee, Wilson Alvarez and Drew are on the disabled list. That amounts to half of the Dodgers' lineup. The team simply can not contend with those types of losses. The Diamondbacks made a run earlier this season, but the pitching lacks depth, and they do not appear to have the talent needed to win the division. The San Diego Padres currently sit 4.5 games ahead in the division, and look like clear favorites.

Much attention has been paid to the American League East race, where the Baltimore Orioles stunned fans with their first place run. The Orioles have fallen however, and now sit just a half game ahead of the Yankees, in second place. As of this writing, the Orioles are preparing to battle Boston in a four game series at Camden Yards. This series is a real test for Baltimore. A bad series could put the Orioles down for good, but a good series can place them right back in the division hunt. While the Orioles may seem like a fluke team, remember they have two legitimate All-Stars in Brian Roberts and Miguel Tejada patrolling the middle infield. The team lacks starting pitching however, and desperately needs Eric Bedard to return.

The Yankees have slipped, but are capable of making the postseason. Any team with Gary Sheffield, Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter and Randy Johnson has a shot. The problem with the Yankees is that they have several bad players taking up playing time. Tony Womack has no business in a major league lineup. While Tino Martinez's hot streak wowed fans, he is now hitting .221 on the season and has hit just one home run since May 15th. The team lacks any threat whatsoever on the bench. Tino Martinez's .318 OBP is the best among non starters. The pitching has proven awful all around. Chien-Ming Wang is a collapse waiting to happen with his low strikeout rate. Mike Mussina and Randy Johnson are good but not outstanding. Carl Pavano was a disappointment and is now hurt. Jaret Wright is hurt, Kevin Brown is ineffective, and the Yankees have no suitable replacements handy. Darrell May could fill in and reel off an effective start or two, but a pitcher who could not succeed in Petco Park is unlikely to succeed anywhere else.

The Yankees tried tapping Columbus for relief pitching help, but early returns from Scott Proctor and Wayne Franklin are discouraging. The Yankees really need to give Colter Bean an extended chance in the majors. A pitcher does not strikeout 11.5 batters per nine in the minors unless he either throws with no control, or he is really good. Bean's control is good, so I am taking the latter option. The Yankees have nothing to lose at this point.

The Red Sox are clear favorites, holding a four game lead. Matt Clement has emerged as the staff ace, and the rotation is doing its part. However, the bullpen has been awful, as Mike Timlin and Mike Myers are the only relievers with sub-5.00 ERAs. And Myers only faces one batter at a time. In a bold move, the Red Sox plan to use the recovering Curt Schilling out of the bullpen. However the pitching works out, the Sox will certainly win games with their bats. There is not a significant weakness in the lineup. Roberto Petagine is hitting .324/.441/.665 in Pawtucket, and he just might earn his long awaited shot at the big leagues.

The Toronto Blue Jays have returned to contention thanks to the dominant pitching of staff ace Roy Halladay. Ted Lilly has looked good in recent starts and Gustavio Chacin is a nice surprise. Miguel Batista has adapted well to the closer's role, posting a 3.11 ERA. The Blue Jays sport the division's best collection of young talent. Chacin, Alexis Rios, Russ Adams, Aaron Hill and David Bush, with more on the way from Syracuse. This team could make waves in the next few years, and have an outside shot at the wild card or even the division this season, especially if Boston can not solve their bullpen woes.

In the American League Central, the White Sox have all but won the division, holding a 10.5 game lead over the Minnesota Twins. As stated earlier, pitching and defense are the name of the game for the Sox. One wonders how deep the Sox can advance in the playoffs. I think they have an opportunity. Their lack of a star closer might earn them some criticism in the press, but that is the least of any good team's worries. For Sox fans, just sit back and enjoy the ride. The Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Indians look to contend for the wild card. The Twins feature a solid pitching staff with some of the best young relievers (Juan Rincon, Jesse Crain, J.C. Romero) in baseball. The Indians have also featured an outstanding bullpen, with seven relievers all posting ERAs under 3.50. With the offensive punch the Indians add, they have a good shot at reaching the postseason.

In the West, the Oakland Athletics are looking at making another run towards the Anti-Moneyball crowd choke on their breakfast. At 10.5 games back however, their success lies in the wild card. The Athletics are 5.5 games back, but trail six teams, so their success is a long shot. The Rangers are struggling, having fallen 8.5 games back. In the meantime, the Los Angeles Angels look to cruise to a second consecutive division title. The team lacks a true offensive thread beyond Vladimir Guerrero, but they do feature a deep and effective pitching staff, anchored by staff ace Bartolo Colon and closer Francisco Rodriguez. Brandon Donnelly and Scot Shields provide the nucleus of a strong relief corps.

ADVENTURES AT THE BALLPARK!

2005-04-09T17:21:00.000-07:00

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
April 9th, 2005 - Busch Stadium II

So, with gas prices escalating at an alarming rate, we decide to leave for the ballpark in the car I take to work everyday, which is, of course, trashed. Amanda asks that we clean out the car, so we stop and do so before we hit the highway.

We get to the Metro stop, I grab my glove and hat and we head to the train. As expected, the train is packed to the gills with Cardinals fans, and we head to the ballpark. Once we get to Busch Stadium, we get out and I check my pockets.

No car keys.

I ask Amanda, who has no pockets, if she has my keys. "Uh oh." We both figure that I left them in the car, along with my brains, so I resolve to take the train back once we find our seats. We sit down on the lower level, with a slightly angled view of the strike zone (for right handed batters), then I rush back to the train, hoping that the car and the keys were still there.

I get back to the metro stop, ask the two Metro security guards smoking cigars for help and, armed with hangers that some bum left by the trash bin, we go back to the car, prepared to break in and get my keys.

Thank god Amanda wanted to clean the car out...as I had stupidly left the back door unlocked. I say some choice expletives, grab my keys, high five the cigar smoking security guard, and run back to the train. At this point, the first pitch of the ballgame was being thrown.

Why is this story important? Well, during the train ride back to the game, I missed the only base runners that the Cardinals would have in the ballgame until the seventh inning. When I came back and set down for the bottom of the second inning, I was about to see Gavin Floyd retire seventeen straight hitters (which became nineteen, with Rolen and Edmonds from the previous inning). Kid was dope .

Since the Cardinals offense never got off the ground, I got to pay attention to the pitching and the defense...which weren't too hot. Suppan was struggling in about every manner possible, with awkward placement and wonky velocity - some of his pitches looked BP-worthy. Four innings later, Suppan was toastified and the Cardinals had essentially lost the game.

Suppan's performance almost looked great when compared to his battery mate, the incomparable Einar Diaz. Diaz looked like he belonged in a blooper reel all day, letting two passed balls go through (one of which scored a run) and never really helping his pitchers out. With two outs, Diaz dropped a third strike on Jim Thome and bobbled it twice, allowing him to go to first. The next batter, Pat Burrell, hit a three run home run. Diaz even managed to show off what he learned from Moise Alou's Instructional Baserunning video, managing to get doubled off of first base when Roger Cedeno popped out to David Bell. THIS BALL NEVER LEFT THE INFIELD AND HE GOT DOUBLED OFF. Cardinal fans, normally patient with subpar performance (hell, we cheered Suppan when he left the game), let Diaz have the Pedro Borbon Jr. treatment as he walked back to the dugout.

One possible highlight came from Randy Flores, who got to throw three innings of mop up work after Suppan was chased. I didn't even realize that Flores was on the team (we have three left-handers?), but he did very well for himself, striking out five in three innings. He leaned heavily on a low-80s changeup, throwing it over and over and over again, infuriating a batter expecting his mid-70s curve or his high-80s fastball. The man built up every at bat from the change...which made it no surprise when the Philly batters started to catch up with him by his third inning of relief. If we can limit the length of his appearances, Flores can be a nice reliever that perfectly fits the Duncan mold: tons of preparation to enhance somewhat limited stuff.

Al, who was at work, didn't get a chance to see the game and asked me for a scouting report on Gavin Floyd. Well, Al, you missed a gem. What's not to like about the kid? Mechanics were solid from the windup - can't really say much for the stretch, as I never got to see him pitch from it, thanks to him retiring nineteen straight. He seemed to mix up a curve and what looked to be a two seam fastball: the curve hit at about 76-78, had a nice break on it. He leaned on the two seamer all day, though, consistently hitting around 90-92 and punching a variety of different spots on the outside of the zone; he got a lot of middling groundouts from the Cardinal hitters, who never seemed to catch the late movement with square contact.

Kid's not afraid to bust inside on hitters, especially lefties, but he comes in with a lot of command - Pratt always had the chance to at least make a decent presentation on each pitch. I wasn't able to see Pujols' steal, but he seemed to work quickly otherwise, which helps. He should definitely stay in the rotation when Padilla comes back, which gives them the convenient "problem" of having six suitable starters for five slots (Wolf, Lieber, Padilla, Floyd, Myers, Lidle).

As for the other pitchers, I didn't see much. By the time Worrell came, I was gobbling a brat, feeling the aftereffects of my frosty beer, and listening to somebody behind me yell "WHEN DID WE TRADE TODD WORRELL?!" in a hilarious nod to Cardinal lore.

Liriano was terrible - looked to have absolutely no control, as he buzzed Roger Cedeno. Edmonds' hit off of him would have been a home run in Citizens Bank, and Einar Diaz was even able to exact some form of redemption from him with a line drive double over Rollins.

Other than the Cardinals getting pounded, it was a fun game with a lot of ambience - in between innings, they played many different moments in Busch Stadium history, including Jim Edmonds' game winning home in Game Six of last year's NLCS and the final out in the first no-hitter in Busch Stadium's history, which happened against - you guessed it - the Phillies. It'll be sad to see it come down, but here's to hoping we've got some more memories left to pack in that ballpark before we move to the next one.

2005-02-17T19:35:00.000-08:00

With Spring Training fast approaching, I decided to take a look at the players the Phillies will bring to camp this season. This includes the Phillies' 40 man roster, along with their non-roster invitees (appreviated "NRI"). First off, let's label the players who are assured of roster slots this season, assuming no trades.

Pitchers: Randy Wolf, Cory Lidle, Jon Lieber, Ryan Madson, Vicente Padilla, Billy Wagner, Terry Adams, Rheal Cormier, Tim Worrell.

Catchers: Todd Pratt, Mike Lieberthal.

Infielders: Jim Thome, Placido Polanco, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, David Bell, Tomas Perez.

Outfielders: Jason Michaels, Bobby Abreu, Pat Burrell, Kenny Lofton.

That is twelve hitters and nine pitchers. That leaves three roster slots possibly up for grabs. Let's look at the candidates.

PITCHERS
Eude Brito struck out 84 batters and walked 42 in 98 IP at AA Reading last season. He's been touted as a bullpen candidate, and the stuff is there. But the 'pen is crowded, and Brito will likely land at AAA this season. He's not quite ready.

Keith Bucktrot intriques some Philly watchers. However, his strikeout rate is on the fringes of acceptability, and he is not a control artist. With a 4.87 ERA in AA, its hard to get excited at this point. Wait and see on this one.

Francisco Butto features a 93 mph fastball, and he keeps the ball down. Butto needs better control, but he's got potential. We'll see what he offers in Reading this season.

Gavin Floyd you may have heard of. He looked shaky in AAA, and I would like to see him receive half a season of AAA ball before he hits the Majors. There's alot here to like, and Gavin Floyd should have his spot in the rotation before long. Floyd is an exciting prospect.

Aaron Fultz comes to Philly after a season as the Twins' bullpen lefty. Fultz's ERA tends to fall on the high side, and he is likely to see AAA this season. His making the club depends on how much new manager Charlie Garner likes his lefties.

Geoff Geary features a career 3.8 K:BB ratio in the minor leagues. He dominated AAA pitching the last three seasons, and in my opinion, he deserves a full time spot in the Major leagues. Without a doubt, Geary is a serious candidate to fill out the Phillies bullpen in 2005.

Pedro Liriano is a Rule V draftee from the Milwaukee Brewers. Liriano struggled in AAA, but he boasts a career K/9 rate of 8.09 in the Minors. He is a player worth watching, but with a full bullpen, it will be interesting to see if Philly gives him the opportunity. If he makes the switch to the pen, he could be a big surprise.

Edwin Moreno had a terrible season in AA Tulsa, posting a 6.01 ERA. He's got a decent track record, but he's yet to garner any AAA experience. His strikeout rate is rather unremarkable. His bad ERA was mostly luck however, so we'll see how he fares in AAA.

Brett Myers struggled last year, and while he is almost assured a spot in the rotation, I believe he has options left. It is conceiveable that Myers could miss out, but that assumes he has a terrible spring AND Gavin Floyd dominates hitters. I do think Myers will figure everything out this season, and he should be a pleasant surprise to Philly fans in 2005.

Franklin Perez missed 2003 with an injury, but posted strong numbers in AA this season. His fastball and low Home Run rates merit him some consideration, but I doubt he will see the big club this season. Keep an eye on Perez in AAA.

Zach Segovia missed last season with Tommy John surgery. He dominated rookie ball in 2002, but I really have no idea how he will turn out.

Rob Tejeda posted good looking ratios in AA Reading. 133 Ks and 59 BBs in just 150 IP. The problem, 29 home runs. Still, he has serious potential, and he is worth keeping an eye on in the minors.

Amaury Telemaco has bounced between the minors and the Majors, but he seems to have found a full time role with the Phillies. A bullpen slot is his to lose.

Mike Bacsik (NRI) has seen limited time in the Majors, but has seen most of his time in AAA over the last four seasons. Bacsik lives off of his control. He does not strikeout many batters. I doubt Bacsik will make it as a starter, and the Indians in fact used him primarily in relief in Oklahoma. Bascik is a long-shot to make the team, but some team could find him useful in the bullpen.

Clay Condrey (NRI) is another minor league pitcher who does not surrender walks, but strikes out few batters as well. At 28, he is no longer a prospect, and 23 home runs in 155 IP is not very good. Condrey is likely as good as he will be in Triple A. He'll get his work in and likely return to Scranton.

Martire Franco (NRI) posted a good season in AA Reading, compiling a 3.30 ERA in 85 IP. The Phillies moved Franco to the bullpen after two failed AA seasons as a starter. The bullpen move revived Franco's career, and it is interesting to see how he performs this season. He will likely move up to AAA Scranton, and from there we will see if he has a shot at the Majors.

Dan Giese (NRI) boasts an 8.34 K/9 rate in the minors, along with a 1.73 BB/9 rate. Giese is not prone to the long-ball. As for traditional categories, Giese posted a 2.81 ERA in AAA Scranton, along with a 12-5 record. I see no reason why Giese could not succeed in the Majors. I doubt he will get a job right away, but I hope he sees the big club at some point during the season.

CATCHERS
Carlos Ruiz excited Philly fans eager for a catching prospect, posting a .484 slugging percentage at AA Reading. Ruiz brings a good glove to the table, along with some pop. Unfortunately, he's 25, old for a prospect, and he's not incredibly disciplined at the plate. ZipS predicts a .227/.264/.353 line, so he is clearly not ready. Ruiz will see a year of AAA, and that will determine his future. Although if Pratt or Lieberthal falls to injury, he could see a look. I don't see Ruiz as a big time prospect, but we've been burned before (Johnny Estrada).

John Castellano (NRI) is a minor league veteran. Castellano posted a .340/.392/.557 line at AA Reading last season. He's 27, and his defense is not especially good. Still, his bat has some pop, and he can play first base or the outfield corners. John Sickels thinks he can hit .260-.275 at the major league level. He could make a useful utility player, but the Phillies do not have a real opening. He should make a useful player at AAA Scranton.

Tim Gradoville (NRI) has a line of .221/.293/.297 after 3 minor league seasons, none above A ball. Quite honestly, major league teams need warm bodies to catch all the pitchers at Spring Training. I can not imagine any other reason for Gradoville to see a NRI.

A.J. Hinch (NRI) saw several seasons of major league ball, mainly as a backup. He spent most of the last two seasons in AAA, with Toledo and then with Scraton. Hinch hit poorly last year, posting a .230/.310/.294 line. He clearly boasts better ability, although he's never hit well enough to justify a major league roster spot. At 30, Hinch is your standard career back-up catcher. He'll likely land in AAA again this season.

Trent Pratt (NRI) has the same profile as John Castellano. There's no reason to give him a second thought.

INFIELDERS
Ryan Howard is a player most Philly fans are familiar with. He is trade bait at this point, but no team has a pressing need for a first baseman right now. The Phillies will probably not use Howard as a left fielder (wisely, IMO), and I doubt they will keep him on the big league roster just as a super-pinch hitter. I think Philly fans are over-estimating Howard at any rate. He might not post a great OBP or batting average just yet. Howard will hit some bombs in Spring Training, and likely start the season at AAA.

Juan Richardson has hit bombs in the minors, but lacks credible plate discipline. Worse, his numbers tanked in Clearwater (.220/.244/.340 in 159 at bats). At 24, Richardson is running out of time to put together a solid season. I found it interesting that Baseball Prospectus did not list Richardson at all the last three seasons. ZipS sees a .211/.255/.341 line for Richardson in the majors. Richardson has no shot at the big club, and if he can not post better numbers in the minors, the Phillies should cut him from the 40-man roster.

Chris Coste (NRI) is listed as an infielder at MLB.com's page, but The Baseball Cube stat site lists Coste as a catcher. Coste is a similar talent to Jim Rushford, as he played Indy ball until the age of 27. He's hit well throughout his AAA career, with a .309 career batting average and .457 slugging percentage, mostly in AAA. He could post serviceable numbers as an MLB backup, although I have no clue what defense he offers. Coste is the kind of player that makes one stratch his head when a team gives Einar Diaz another year.

Anthony Medrano (NRI) is a veteran minor league shortstop. At the age of 30, Medrano has twelve years of minor league ball under his belt, although he has never reached the Majors. Medrano hit well in Edmonton last season, posting a .308 batting average along with a .372 On Base Percentage. However, that was the Pacific Coast League, and Medrano's track record is not as sparkling. Given the presence of Polanco and Tomas Perez, Medrano will not see the big leagues. However, he could make a good starting shortstop for the AAA Red Barons.

Jose Offerman (NRI) is the Phillies' most interesting Non Roster Invitee. Offerman posted a .363 OBP last season for the Minnesota Twins. However, it is questionable if Offerman can keep up that kind of production. ZipS predicts a .325 OBP, along with a .226 batting average. It is hard to justify that kind of production from a player who provides little defensive value at this stage of his career. Still, at least it would not be as maddening as the Dave Hollins acquisition a couple seasons ago.

Danny Sandoval (NRI) arrives as a minor league free agent. Sandoval stagnated in the minors, getting stuck in AA ball for three and a galf seasons. Sandoval posted a .319/.365/.449 line in Tulsa, so it looks like he's finally ready for AAA ball. Sandoval is 25, so he's certainly no prospect. Still, if he can maintain his production, he can make a decent utility player. He's not much of a step down from Tomas Perez, if projections are to be believed. Like Medrano, he will likely see time with the AAA Red Barons.

OUTFIELDERS
Marlon Byrd struggled, to say the least. No one knows quite what went wrong. Looking at his stats, he suffered a minimal loss in his walk rate, and a minimal decline in his isolated power. Most of his drop was batting average related. I truly believe Byrd will come back. He's hit .300 throughout most of his professional career, and his work-ethic is top notch. Byrd's a personal favorite, so I am cheering for him.

Chris Roberson hit .307/.371/.473 in A level Clearwater last season. It was his first big year in organized baseball, after subpar efforts the last three seasons. Roberson features some speed, stealing 59 bases in Lakewood last season. Unfortunately, he is 25, and does not have a real track record of success. A leg injury ended his season early. Regardless of what future Roberson has (I'm not optimistic), he has no shot at the club this year, and he will likely see time at the minor league training camp.

Shane Victorino arrived via the Rule V draft from the Los Angeles Dodgers. Victorino hit .328/.375/.584 in AA Jacksonville, but struggled against AAA Las Vegas. Victorino is reputed to have a good defensive glove, but his bat is not there as of yet. ZipS predicts a .253/.308/.407 line for Victorino. That's liveable, but I would prefer Marlon Byrd in center field. Still, if Lofton and Michaels can provide enough platoon offense, a defensive player is a bigger need. This is probably the player to watch, in terms of roster construction.

Mark Budzinski (NRI) is a career minor league outfielder. Budzinski hit an acceptable .283/.345/.429 in AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre last season. He's 31, so he has no prospect status whatsoever. ZipS sees a .258/.331/.358 line in the Majors for Budzinski, so he's not a guy who would kill your team as a week-long fill in, if Pat Burrell or someone suffered a nagging injury. His defense is considered very good as well. Budzinski will not make the club, but he is a useful AAA player.

Jorge Padilla (NRI) looked like a prospect at one point, but his stock has fallen. Padilla hit just .253 with a .343 slugging percentage last season in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. At 25, Padilla has little time left. He has not managed a good season since his A ball campaign in Clearwater. Padilla will garner little more than a quick look before he ends up back at AAA.

Jim Rushford (NRI) is another minor league hitter, in the vein of Mark Budzinski. Rushford holds a career .308 minor league batting average, along with a .466 slugging percentage, and a decent walk rate. Rushford got a late start, as he played Independent Ball until the age of 27. He hit well his first season in AAA, but did not hit in a 23 game trial with Milwaukee, and he has not received another shot. He is rated as just a fair outfielder, and with his profile, he will need to put up some eye-popping numbers to get another look.

Of the four roster slots, Brett Myers and Amaury Telemaco should get the nods among pitchers. Shane Victorino and Marlon Byrd will battle for the outfield spot among hitters. That leaves room for a 25th player. I would prefer to see a hitter, but looking among the candidates, it seems we will have either Jose Offerman or a middle reliever. If it is a reliever, it would likely be Rule V pick Pedro Liriano.

Regardless of what happens, it should be a fun Spring!

Best Defensive Catcher in 2004

2004-12-27T12:09:00.000-08:00

Bengie Molina, Ivan Rodriguez, and Brad Ausmus are generally considered the top defensive catchers in baseball today. Ivan Rodriguez has won 10 Gold Gloves in his career, including his 10th last season for Detroit. Molina won Gold Gloves in 2003 and 2002 with Anaheim while Ausmus has won Gold Gloves in 2002 and 2001 with Houston.

Last season, Rodriguez won the Gold Glove for the AL while Mike Matheny won the Gold Glove for the NL. Looking at fielding Win Shares the AL leader was Damian Miller with 7.8, almost a full run better than Rodriguez. In the NL, Brian Schneider had 10.4 Win Shares, a hair under a run better than Matheny who still had 8.1. However, let's delve a little deeper into the numbers last season.

Let's look at the Top 5 catchers last season for both leagues, using Win Shares as our rank system. We'll compare put outs, assists, runs above a replacement player, and SB% rates against.

American League
#1: Damian Miller(Oakland) 7.8
#2: Dan Wilson(Seattle) 5.8
#3: Toby Hall(Tampa Bay) 5.3
#4: Javy Lopez(Baltimore) 5.1
#5: Ben Molina(Anaheim) 4.9
GG Winner: Ivan Rodriguez(Detroit) 4.2

As you'll notice, Rodriguez doesn't even rank in the Top 5 among catchers according to Win Shares. Henry Blanco(Minnesota), Rod Barajas(Texas), and Jason Varitek(Boston) also placed ahead of Rodriguez.

National League
#1: Brian Schneider(Montreal) 10.4
#2 GG Winner: Mike Matheny(St. Louis) 8.1
#3: Jason Kendall(Pittsburgh) 6.8
#4: Brad Ausmus(Houston) 5.6
#5: Paul Lo Duca(Los Angeles/Florida) 5.3

As you can see, Matheny at least placed 2nd in fielding WS amongst NL catchers. You can also see that the NL had catchers who were more known for their defense rather than their hitting whereas the AL tends to have catchers who can hit better.

American League: Putouts, Assists, Errors, and Passed Balls.
#1: Damian Miller(Oakland) 701 putouts and 49 assists in 109 games. Had 1 error and 0 passed balls. Averaged 6.43 putouts and 0.44 an assist a game.
#2: Dan Wilson(Seattle) 611 putouts and 38 assists in 103 games. Had 2 errors and 0 passed balls. Averaged 5.93 putouts and 0.37 an assist a game.
#3: Toby Hall(Tampa Bay) 686 putouts and 38 assists in 119 games. Had 6 errors and 0 passed balls. Averaged 5.76 putouts and 0.32 an assist a game.
#4: Javy Lopez(Baltimore) 848 putouts and 49 assists in 132 games. Had 5 errors and 9 passed balls. Averaged 6.42 putouts and 0.37 an assist a game.
#5: Ben Molina(Anaheim) 597 putouts and 56 assists in 89 games. Had 3 errors and 6 passed balls. Averaged 6.71 putouts and 0.69 an assist a game.
GG Winner: Ivan Rodriguez(Detroit) 770 putouts and 52 assists in 124 games. Had 11 errors and 3 passed balls. Averaged 6.21 putouts and 0.42 an assist a game.

Clearly Ben Molina, despite the least amount of games at catcher, had the highest average of putouts and assists per game. Miller also edged out Rodriguez although both men are clearly very close to one another in both categories.

National League: Putouts, Assists, Errors, and Passed Balls.
#1: Brian Schneider(Montreal) 814 putouts and 58 assists in 133 games. He also had 2 errors and 4 passed balls. Averaged 6.12 putouts and 0.44 an assist per game.
#2 GG Winner: Mike Matheny(St. Louis) 742 putouts and 58 assists in 122 games. He also had 1 error and 2 passed balls. Averaged 6.08 putouts and 0.48 an assist per game.
#3: Jason Kendall(Pittsburgh) 998 putouts and 78 assists in 146 games. He had 10 errors and 2 passed balls. Averaged 6.84 putouts and 0.53 an assist per game.
#4: Brad Ausmus(Houston) 920 putouts and 61 assists in 128 games. Had 5 errors and 2 passed balls. Averaged 7.19 putouts and 0.48 an assist per game.
#5: Paul Lo Duca(Los Angeles/Florida) 513 putouts and 43 assists in 81 games. Had 3 errors and 7 passed balls. Averaged 6.33 putouts and 0.53 an assist per game.

Brad Ausmus and Jason Kendall clearly stood head and shoulders above both Matheny and Schneider in their average putouts and assists per game. Ausmus would likely be given first due to bettering 7 putouts a game, the best among either league.

Now let's look at their success rate in throwing out base runners.

American League: Success Rate
#1: Damian Miller(Oakland) Threw out 43% of base runners in 81 attempts.
#2: Dan Wilson(Seattle) Threw out 33% of base runners in 66 attempts.
#3: Toby Hall(Tampa Bay) Threw out 34% of base runners in 67 attempts.
#4: Javy Lopez(Baltimore) Threw out 28% of base runners in 94 attempts.
#5: Ben Molina(Anaheim) Threw out 26% of base runners in 69 attempts.
GG Winner: Ivan Rodriguez(Detroit) Threw out 32% of base runners in 59 attempts.

Clearly, Miller dominates the rest of the competition in this category. Hall and Wilson also bested Rodriguez.

National League: Success Rate
#1: Brian Schneider(Montreal) Threw out 50% of base runners in 72 attempts.
#2 GG Winner: Mike Matheny(St. Louis) Threw out 30% of base runners in 54 attempts.
#3: Jason Kendall(Pittsburgh) Threw out 36% of base runners in 102 attempts.
#4: Brad Ausmus(Houston) Threw out 26% of base runners in 106 attempts.
#5: Paul Lo Duca(Los Angeles/Florida) Threw out 28% of base runners in 129 attempts.

Clearly, Schneider had a better success rate than anybody else in either league so he's clearly the dominant player here. Kendall also threw out more runners than Matheny.

Finally, we will look at defensive runs above a replacement player. Here is the definition as given by Baseball Prospectus: Runs above replacement. A fielding statistic, where a replacement player is meant to be approximately equal to the lowest-ranking player at that position, fielding wise, in the majors. RAR2 adjusts for league difficulty and normalizes statistics over time. Great seasons usually see players with 35 or more runs above a replacement player.

American League
#1: Damian Miller(Oakland) 38 runs.
#2: Dan Wilson(Seattle) 22 runs.
#3: Toby Hall(Tampa Bay) 28 runs.
#4: Javy Lopez(Baltimore) 25 runs.
#5: Ben Molina(Anaheim) 17 runs.
GG Winner: Ivan Rodriguez(Detroit) 24 runs.

Again, Miller trumps the competition and both Hall and Lopez beat out Rodriguez, even if it was close.

National League
#1: Brian Schneider(Montreal) 45 runs.
#2 GG Winner: Mike Matheny(St. Louis) 40 runs.
#3: Jason Kendall(Pittsburgh) 47 runs.
#4: Brad Ausmus(Houston) 29 runs.
#5: Paul Lo Duca(Los Angeles/Florida) 19 runs.

Kendall had the most runs however Schneider was right behind him and still outperformed Matheny. Matheny did have a great season but Kendall and Schneider were just that much better.

Best defensive catcher in the AL: Damian Miller. Led the AL in Win Shares, Percentage of base runners caught, and runs above a replacement player. He also edged out Rodriguez in average putouts and assists per game.

Best defensive catcher in the NL: Brian Schneider is my pick though Jason Kendall is a close second. Schneider's success rate against base runners pushed him over the edge IMO. He also saved 45 runs, led the NL in fielding WS, and edged out Matheny in putouts per game and very close in assists per game.

"Wheeze Kids" Redux

2004-12-23T11:09:00.000-08:00

The San Francisco Giants signed OF Moises Alou to a two year contract. The Alou signing now gives the Giants five regulars over the age of 37 (Alou, Omar Vizquel, Barry Bonds, J.T. Snow and Marquis Grissom). It is unusual for a team to risk a season with so many aging players, but it is certainly not an impossible task. For me, this Giants squad kindles memories of another such squad, the 1983 Phillies, dubbed the "Wheeze Kids."

The 1983 Phillies featured SIX players over the age of 38, including Pete Rose (42), Tony Perez (41), Ron Reed (40), Joe Morgan (39), Tug McGraw (38), and Steve Carlton (38). Rose compiled an awful year, hitting .245 along with a .316 slugging percentage, and only 17 extra base hits in 493 at bats. Rose's partner in crime at first, Tony Perez, hit .241/.316/.372 in 91 games. Undoubtably, their presence hindered the Phillies rather than helped them. Joe Morgan hit .230, but his secondary skills (89 walks, and 18 steals in 20 attempts) made him a useful player.

The Phillies' old pitchers fared better. Carlton struck out 275 batters in 283.7 IP, winning 15 games, and compiling a 3.11 ERA. Relievers Reed and McGraw each contributed above average ERAs. The team won 90 games and the NL Pennant, before falling to the Baltimore Orioles in the World Series.

Comparing the two teams, both teams had a sure fire, first ballot Hall of Famer who supported the team. Barry Bonds is the primary reason the Giants have enjoyed success over the last few seasons. The Phillies benefitted from the presence of Mike Schmidt, with whom the Phillies won five division titles, two NL pennants, and a World Championship. To put the Phillies in context, they only won three league championships in the 103 seasons they played without Schmidt.

The Phillies contained three Hall of Famers (and Pete Rose) among their six old timers. On the Giants, no player outside of Bonds holds a serious HOF argument. The Phillies achieved their success in spite of their old timers, while the Giants need contributions from their group in order to win the division.

Ultimately, the Giants will contend as long as Bonds is active. However, they will need Vizquel, Alou, and Grissom to contribute in order to make a serious run through the players. None of these players seems like a serious injury risk, but nagging injuries have a way of striking older players. The Giants desperately need to make a run, as the team is toast once Bonds retires.

The pitching staff is noteably younger, as the Giants boast a deep farm staff. Brad Hennessey will be 25 next season, Noah Lowry will be 24, and Jerome Williams just 23. With Jason Schmidt anchoring the staff, the pitching could serve to carry the Giants to a surprise NL championship IF everything goes right.

Milwaukee Brewers 2005 Outlook

2004-12-23T08:25:00.000-08:00

When you think of the Milwaukee Brewers, you think of how awful they have been in the past five years. They've had glimmers of hope, such as 1992 when they finished second with a 92-70 record and 1987 when they finished third with a 91-71 record. When you think of the Brewers, you don't remember guys like Darryl Hamilton, Cecil Cooper, Chris Bosio, and Dan Plesac. Instead you picture the current incarnation featuring such stars as Royce Clayton, John Vander Wal, Jeff D'Amico, and Cal Eldred. However there was promise shown last season, despite a sixth place finish and a 67-94 record.

1B Lyle Overbay and OF Brady Clark were both very good hitters last season. OF Geoff Jenkins continued to showcase his power as SP's Doug Davis and Ben Sheets put in fine performances on the mound. Closer Danny Kolb, recently traded to Atlanta for MR Jose Capellan and MR Alec Zumwalt continued his success in the bullpen. The Brewers finished 12th in the NL in Runs per Game, 11th in On Base Percentage, and 14th in Slugging Percentage. Pitching wise, they were slightly better. The Brewers finished 10th in Runs per Game, 9th in ERA, and 6th in shut outs. The Brewers have lost a few capable players in MR Luis Vizcaino, OF Ben Grieve(assuming they don't re-sign him), CL Danny Kolb, and 2B Keith Ginter but should rebound well this season.

The Milwaukee Brewers added another slugger to their lineup in Carlos Lee to upgrade over RF Brady Clark and move Clark over to CF to take Scott Podsednik's place. Clark or Spivey could lead off for the Brewers but I feel that Clark will win the spot due to his great line as well as the fact that he had 15 steals in 23 chances. 1B Lyle Overbay should continue to hit well, now giving the Brewers a dangeroud 3-4-5 group in the order with Geoff Jenkins most likely being given the 5 spot due to his power but lack of average. With Clark, Spivey, and Overbay hitting in front, Carlos Lee should reach 80-100 RBI and reach 25-30 HR's. Damian Miller can hit for a decent average which places him at the sixth spot. J.J. Hardy gets the 7th spot as he can hit .260-.275 in the big leagues while Branyan is pretty much all power and not much else. On the bench, there are several solid pinch hitters including Wes Helms, uber prospect Rickie Weeks who could arrive around Early to Mid June, Bill Hall, and power hitter Prince Fielder who could see time immediately after spring training or get called up around mid to late May.

The starting rotation will most likely have Ben Sheets and Doug Davis going 1 and 2 after their solid performances last season. Victor Santos should see the 3 spot after a somewhat unspectacular 4.97 ERA in 28 starts last season. Chris Capuano, despite a solid K/9 rate of 8.2 last season should see the 4th spot after putting up a 4.99 ERA in 17 starts last year. He and Santos could also switch spots depending on who has the better spring training. The last spot in the rotation will likely go to Ben Hendrickson despite a 6.22 ERA last year in 9 starts. Jose Capellan could get the chance to win this spot in spring training though and could be the #5 starter entering the season.

The bullpen will likely feature some assortment of Matt Wise, Jeff Bennett, Justin Lehr, and Capellan if he doesn't win the last rotation spot. Wise put up a 4.44 ERA last year in 30 games with a poor 5.1 K/9. Jeff Bennett wasn't much better after putting up a 4.79 ERA in 60 games last season but he had a slightly better 5.7 K/9 and should rebound to the low 4.40's-4.20's this season. Lehr had a dismal 5.23 ERA last year in 27 games for Oakland and walked almost as many batters as he struck out(14 BB vs 16 K). Capellan should definitely be in the bullpen if he misses out on the 5th spot in the rotation and should prove to be very adequate. Derrick Turnbow could see time in the bullpen in place of Lehr after putting up a 0.30 ERA in 15 games combined the past 2 seasons for Anaheim. Another prospect for the bullpen could be Roberto Giron who had a 1.86 ERA in 52 games between AA and AAA last year. The set up man for the Brewers should be Mike Adams who posted a 3.40 ERA in 46 games last season with a solid 6.6 K/9 vs 2.4 BB/9. The closer will most likely be Brooks Kieschnick after his 3.77 ERA in 32 games as well as his .270 BA. With his bat, he could make a very dangerous late innings pitcher as he can hit too.

My projected record for them: 74-88 and a 5th place finish above Pittsburgh.

Washington Nationals

2004-12-22T15:24:00.000-08:00

Last night, the D.C. Council approved a new stadium deal for the Washington Nationals. Since the team's location is secure, I figured I would take an in depth look at a team often ignored.

LINEUP

C Brian Schneider
1B Nick Johnson
2B Jose Vidro
SS Christian Guzman
3B Vinny Castilla
LF Terrmel Sledge
CF Brad Wilkerson
RF Jose Guillen

Last season, the Expos finished fourteenth in batting average, fifteenth in On Base Percentage, fifteenth in Slugging Percentage, and fourteenth in runs scored. However, they may take heart in the solace that they finished first in Productive Out Percentage. Despite all those productive outs, the Expos desperately need an upgrade in offense. Four changes appear in this year's lineup.

1. The Nationals signed SS Christian Guzman for four years, $16.8 Million to replace shortstops Orlando Cabrera, Alex Gonzalez, and Maicer Izturis.

Guzman boasts a career .303 On Base Percentage, without much power, and little plate discipline. His speed is not much of an offensive asset, as Guzman hit only four triples, along with ten stolen bases. So what does Guzman bring to the table? His prime asset seems to lie in not being Alex Gonzalez.

2. The Nationals signed 3B Vinny Castilla for two years, $6.2 Million to replace Tony Batista.

The bad news is that Castilla has never hit well outside of Coors Field. The good news is that if Castilla hits like he did in 2003 (.277/.310/.461), he will still represent a significant upgrade over Tony Batista. Castilla's defense is also excellent. Given the going rate of contracts these days, $3.1 Million seems like a good price, and two years is hardly an albatross.

3. The Nationals acquired OF Jose Guillen from the Anaheim Angels for OF Juan Rivera and IF Maicer Izturis.

Guillen's 2003 looked like a fluke season, but he this season he produced another fine performance, hitting .294/.352/.497. The question is whether he represents a significant upgrade over Juan Rivera. Rivera actually posted a higher OBP this season, albeit with a lower slugging percentage. Given Guillen's mediocre hitting stats before 2004, it is difficult to judge his true level of ability. Between 2003 and 2004, it seems reasonable to expect Guillen to produce a .350-.360 OBP, along with .500 slugging. Rivera is harder to judge. He had a very nice season, but it is hard to tell whether a shade under 400 at bats is enough to give a clear picture of his ability. I think both players should give similar OBPs, while Guillen will hit for more power. I am not overly concerned with the Nationals losing Maicer Izturis, because his year in the minors could have been a fluke as well. The concern is whether the Nationals added too much salary, but like I stated earlier, $3 Million for Guillen now looks like a bargain.

4. The Nationals should get more production out of 1B Nick Johnson

This bears watching, for two reasons. Number one, A healthy Nick Johnson could produce a .400 OBP, a huge boon for a struggling offense. Two, if Johnson plays at first, Brad Wilkerson can patrol center field. And Wilkerson in center pushes Endy Chavez to the bench, where he belongs.

BENCH

A large part of the Expos' offensive struggles resided with their weak bench. Only Jamey Carroll provided an OBP over .300. This year, the Nationals should see more production. For starters, the team pulled an excellent trade with the Pittsburgh Pirates, netting OF J.J. Davis in return for a minor league prospect. Injuries limited Davis last season, but he is an overlooked prospect, and should contribute. Brendan Harris arrived from the Cubs last season. Harris hit .311/.353/.531 in AAA Iowa last season, so he should be ready to contribute as well in a big league role. Jamey Carroll returns, and the Nationals should expect a contribution from Ryan Church, who hit .343/.428/.620 in AAA Edmonton last season. Church is old for a prospect, but he could hit .350/.450 in the big leagues.

ROTATION

The rotation starts with Livan Hernandez. Hernandez pitches massive amounts of innings and posts very good ERAs. Since his arrival in Montreal, Hernandez has blossomed into the game's most undervalued pitcher. After Hernandez however, you get your choice of four from Tony Armas, Zach Day, Tomo Ohka, John Patterson, Scott Downs, Sun-Woo Kim, and Jon Rauch. Armas is an injury risk. He has not pitched a full season for two years, and it is questionable whether his arm is up to task. Day and Ohka had good seasons, but their peripherals were mediocre, and future success is questionable. Patterson allowed 18 home runs in 98.3 IP last season. Downs allowed a 5.14 ERA, and Sun-Woo Kim posted a 4.58 ERA. Jon Rauch is a mystery. In 23.3 IP, he posted great numbers, but one wonders if he can keep it going. Still, I think the rotation for 2005, assuming no injuries, will be Hernandez, Armas, Day, Patterson, Rauch. There is some potential, but no one on the staff behind Hernandez or Rauch projects to be much more than a back-end rotation guy. If this staff succeeds, it will be via the Rangers' smoke and mirrors method.

BULLPEN

The Nationals received solid contributions from the bullpen last season. Chad Cordero, Luis Ayala, T.J. Tucker, and Joe Horgan all posted sub-4.00 ERAs. All four are back, and with the exception of Horgan, all feature good peripherals. Joey Eischen returns to shore up the bullpen, and the club should expect contributions from Francis Beltran, Shawn Hill, and perhaps Sun-Woo Kim. This is one area where the Nationals need not worry.

With the Phillies, Marlins, Mets and Braves, the Nationals are the odd team out in the National League East. Quite honestly, I would be surprised to see them finish fourth (only Pedro blows out his arm). The fans in Washington need to strap themselves in for the long haul. This team needs to build their farm system before they can make a reasonable run at a division title. The cubboard is bare at the upper levels, and the team sacrificed draft picks to sign Vinny Castilla.

2004-12-21T05:07:00.000-08:00

Over the lack week, Oakland Athletics GM Billy Beane received a lot of flak for two trades. In the span of three days, Beane traded both Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder. Beane traded Hudson to the Atlanta Braves for Dan Meyer, Juan Cruz, and Charles Thomas, and Beane traded Mulder to the St. Louis Cardinals for Daric Barton, Dan Haren, and Kiko Calero. Obviously the trade has opened the Athletics to a wealth of criticism.

First off, let's recount the Oakland Athletics' position in the marketplace. There is no possibility the Athletics could have retained all three of their pitchers (Hudson is eligible for free agency after this season, and Mulder and Barry Zito are eligible after next). Part of this is that the Athletics do not have the financial resources, but it is also worth noting that almost NO team could keep three starters of this quality. The New York Yankees have practically unlimited financial resources, and they still lost Andy Pettitte. Ditto the Boston Red Sox and Pedro Martinez. Once the free agency market valued pitchers at today's asking prices, it quickly became apparent that the Athletics, at best, could only hope to keep one of their starters if any. In a perfect world, the Athletics would have kept Tim Hudson. However, Hudson is probably worth more than the Athletics could possibly hope to pay.

Looking ahead, if a player leaves via free agency, the team can collect up to two draft picks in return for that player. So the first question is whether trading the player brought more in return than simply leatting him leave via free agency. For example, in 2002 the Chicago White Sox traded Ray Durham to the Oakland Athletics for minor league pitcher Jon Adkins. Adkins is certainly not a better investment than two first round draft picks might have yielded, so one questions whether this was good value for the White Sox. In this case, Beane collected three players each for his pitchers, players who have already reached the majors and are reasonable bets to become good major league players.

The Oakland Athletics faced a future in which they would lose three of their four best starters. Here, they have secured two top starting pitcher prospects, two good relievers, and two position players. Dan Meyer struck out 146 batters in 126.3 IP last year between AA and AAA, compared to just 37 walks. Dan Haren struck out 150 batters at AAA in 128 innings, with just 33 walks. These are excellent ratios, and point to pitchers that should be successful in the major leagues. The problem is the unpredictability of rookie starters. It is hard to say whether each of these pitchers can succeed right away in the majors, and the Athletics have little to fall back upon. I cannot recall an example of a team that placed three rookie starters in the rotation. The inexperience of the A's squad is their biggest weakness heading into 2005.

The Athletics shored up their bullpen with these trades, receiving Kiko Calero and Juan Cruz. Calero contributed a 2.78 ERA to the Cardinals last season, with 47 strikeouts and just 10 walks. His strikeout numbers in the majors have been outstanding thus far, and the move from the rotation in the minors to the major league bullpen seems to have done a world of good. Truthfully, I do not know why more struggling minor league pitching prospects are not switched to the 'pen. Juan Cruz arrives after a successful year in Atlanta, posting a 2.75 ERAm again with excellent peripheral statistics. Cruz has developed well as a pitcher. His 6.05 ERA seems the result of bad luck, and his peripheral statistics have improved each season.

The Athletics received Charles Thomas in the Hudson deal. Thomas burst onto the scene last season, hitting .288/.368/.445 for the Braves. The catch is that Thomas collected all but 35 plate appearances against right handed hitters. Quite simply, he is a platoon player. Looking at the Athletics, it so happens their current left fielder, Eric Byrnes, crushes lefties (.306/.358/.536 career) but struggles against lefties (.253/.325/.422). Between Byrnes and Thomas, the Athletics field better talent at left field than many teams do with one.

Daric Barton is an intriguing prospect out of the Cardinals' farm system. Barton posted a .313/.445/.511 line in a full season at single A Peoria. Barton shows excellent strike zone judgement, hits for power, and seems liked by scouts as well. He is at least two or three seasons away, but he shows promise. Between Barton, John Baker, and Kurt Suzuki, the Athletics should produce at least one high caliber catcher by the time Jason Kendall leaves.

One aspect of the Athletics that is overlooked is their improved offense. Jason Kendall replaces Damian Miller in the lineup, while Keith Ginter and/or Mark Ellis replace Marco Scutaro. Both represent significant upgrades. In addition, Nick Swisher replaces Jermaine Dye in right field. Here is a table of win shares.

2004
Old Athletics
Marco Scutaro (10)
Damian Miller (15)
Jermaine Dye (12)

New Athletics
Keith Ginter (12)
Jason Kendall (25)
Nick Swisher (?)

Ginter and Kendall mark a 12 win share improvement over their predecessors. I think a conservative estimate for Swisher's minimum is somewhere around seven to nine. He could earn more than Dye. In any case, he should at least hold down the position, preventing a massive downgrade. The pitching staff is another matter. Hudson and Mulder earned 16 and 15 win shares, respectively. Mark Redman earned another 9. So the mission for the Athletics is to replace 38 win shares. Their bullpen was horrid last season, so the 12 win shares added by Cruz and Calero help. We figure that cuts the margin to 26, and the upgrades of Ginter and Miller cut it to 14.

So assuming each player maintains the previous year's production, the Athletics need to replace 14 win shares from their main departing group. Let's add eleven to figure for relievers such as Jim Mecir and Chris Hammond departing (and one share for Arthur Rhodes). That gives us twenty five lost win shares that must be replaced by the three rookie starters. It is not as easy as it looks particularly when you realize that the Philadelphia Phillies did not produce a starter with more than eight win shares. Still, it is not an impossible task, and the Athletics' young starters have the pedigree to succeed.

Looking around the division, the Mariners seem unlikely to rebound from their 99 loss season. The Rangers produced a nice season, but an 18 win improvement due to their smoke and mirrors pitching staff seems unlikely to repeat. It seems from a glance that the Rangers' success was due to fluke years from their bullpen. The Angels seem committed to spending money as stupidly as possible. $32 Million to a shortstop when they already had David Eckstein and Maicer Izturis. $14 Million to a 40 year old center fielder when they already have a terrific defensive center fielder tethered to first base. I think the Angels are the AL West favorites at this point. But the Athletics have two front line starters in Barry Zito and Rich Harden, an All-Star catcher in Jason Kendall, and an All-Star third baseman in Eric Chavez. This is a team that could win the West, and should at least finish second. Mark my words, the A's are far from also-rans, even this season.

Looking at the LA Dodgers Farm System

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The Los Angeles Dodgers have been making quite a few deals since the induction of Paul DePodesta as GM. He led the Dodgers to the playoffs last season and yet he continues to get called on as the "stars" of the Dodgers leave. He acquired such names as Jayson Werth(.262/.338/.486 in 89 games), Milton Bradley (.267/.362/.424 in 141 games), Steve Finley (.263/.324/.491 in 58 games), and Brad Penny(3.09 ERA in the 3 starts he made) who were all instrumental in getting the Dodgers to the playoffs. However, this piece is not about how DePodesta's trades worked out but rather his farm system. Along with fabulous amateur scouting director Logan White, the Dodgers have built a very impressive minor league system. This system is easily in the top 5. I'll be looking at each level of the farm system(all the way down to rookie ball) and highlighting the prospects who've been most impressive and should be names to keep an eye on. The younger the player is at a level, the more impressive his numbers should be in context with his age. Keep in mind that the Dodgers tend to work their players through the system quickly so don't be surprised to see most of the players being pretty young for the level.

Triple A: Las Vegas 51's

27 year old OF Chin-Feng Chen: He's slugged over .500 since hitting Triple A at the age of 24 in 2002. In 351 games at this level, he has a .285/.357/.539 line including slugging .584 last season in 81 games. He shows solid power having had 56 extra base hits in 2002, 61 in 2003 and 45 last year while keeping a good average. His eye could be a little better as he's averaged a 51 BB/115 K rate however he's cut his strikeouts from 160 to 106 to 78 which is very good.

24 year old SS Antonio Perez: Drafted in 1998 by Cincinnati, he joined Seattle from 2000 through 2002 and Tampa Bay in 2003. Has seemingly found a home in Los Angeles after hitting .296/.379/.511 in AAA at the age of 24. He showed an explosion of power by hitting 24 doubles and 22 home runs last season after topping out at 36 doubles and 17 home runs in Single A ball at age 20 for Seattle. Seems to show a good command of the strike zone, with a 61 BB/87 K rate last year and 99 K's as his high again in 2000 at Single A. He flew through Tampa Bay, playing 24 games at Double A and 34 games in AAA in 2003 before making the big league club. He played 48 games hitting .248/.345/.360 and played in 13 games for the Dodgers last year. He hit .231/.286/.308 in 13 games but managed 5 runs.

22 year old SP Edwin Jackson: Has just flown through the Dodgers farm system, hitting Triple A at the age of 21 last season and the majors at age 20 the year before. He had an impressive 3.70 ERA at AA in 2003 in 27 starts and showed a great K rate with 157 K's in 148.1 IP. Could stand to work on his BB rate a little(3.2 in AA and 5.5 in AAA) but considering how old he is, that's still pretty amazing. In 19 starts last year, he had a 5.86 ERA with a 70 K/55 BB rate in 90.2 IP. He gives up very few home runs however, giving up a grand total of 15 in 77 games spanning rookie level to Triple A. Definitely a solid starter in the making if he can get control of his command and lower his walk rate.

22 year old SP Ryan Ketchner: Has just lit up every level that he's played at. Was drafted by Seattle in the 10th round of the 2000 draft but joined the Dodgers in 2004 and hasn't looked back. Has a career 3.17 ERA in 114 games(63 starts). Joined the Jacksonville Suns in AA upon coming to Los Angeles where he started 21 games and had a 3.02 ERA with 98 K/36 BB in 119.1 IP. He allows his fair share of home runs(10 at AA) but knows how to pitch. In 2002, he pitched 31 games for Seattle's Single A team and had a 118 K/39 BB(3:1) rate in 111 IP. In 2003 at Single A again, he improved on that by going for a 159 K/33 BB(5:1) rate in 156.2 IP. He also had a 3.45 ERA and started 22 of 31 games that he appeared in. He hit AAA in 2004 and had 4 K's in 7 IP and a 1.29 ERA in his only start.

Double A: Jacksonville Suns

20 year old SS Joel Guzman: Really came into his own last year at age 19. He hit .307/.349/.550 at Vero Beach in 87 games and hit .280/.325/.522 in 46 games with Jacksonville. Between the two levels he had a .294/.337/.536 line in 133 games and 33 doubles, 11 triples, and 23 home runs. He's never played more than 87 games in a minor league season but that has more to do with the fact that he gets called up consistently. He's showed solid power hitting 26 doubles, 1 triple, and 13 home runs in 120 games between Low and High Class A at the age of 18 in 2003.

20 year old SP Chad Billingsley: A fabulous starter in the making. In 37 career minor league starts, he has a career 2.72 ERA. He made the leap from High A Vero Beach to Double A last season and showed no signs of slowing down. Between the two levels, he had a 2.67 ERA in 26 starts with a 158 K/71 BB(2:1) rate in 134.1 IP. He's posted a K rate of at least 10 in the three minor league seasons he's played however his walk rate jumped to 4.8 at High A and 4.7 in AA last season which could be a concern. As long as he can lower that though, he should be a perfectly solid starter in the Dodgers rotation.

High A: Vero Beach Dodgers

22 year old 2B Delwyn Young: One word describes Young and that is power! He's slugged over .500 in rookie ball, Low A, and High A. In 2002, he had a .300/.380/.508 line in 59 games with 18 doubles and 10 home runs. In 2003, He had a .323/.381/.523 line in 119 games with 38 doubles and 15 home runs. Last year, he continued his torrid pace as he had a .281/.364/.511 line in 129 games along with 36 doubles and a career best 22 home runs. He's clubbing more home runs as he climbs and could see action in AA this year, maybe even AAA if he continues to hit. He shows great power but has also shown he can hit for a solid average. His walks have grown from 27 to 36 to 57 however his strikeouts have also grown from 60 to 87 to a whopping 134 last year which is a concern. If he can cut his strikeouts down to around 95 and get his walks up to 65 or 70 while maintaining his power, he could be a very, very dangerous hitter.

20 year old SP Jonathan Broxton: Had a 3.23 ERA in 23 starts last season at Vero Beach and put up a very good 144 K/43 BB(3:1) rate in 128.1 IP. He posted his lowest BB/9 at 3.0 and his best K/9 at 10.1 which bodes well for the future. In 2003, he had a 3.13 ERA in 8 starts for Low A South Georgia and a 2.76 ERA in 11 games at rookie level in 2002. If he can keep his BB/9 number low, he could move through the system very quickly. He's showed a solid K/9 but he averaged 6 IP a start last season.

20 year old SP Mike Megrew: He posts a fabulous K/9 rate and has a career 2.96 ERA in 40 starts. Last year at High A, he put up a 125 K/43 BB(3:1) rate in 105.2 IP. In 2003, he put up his best K/9 at 11.7 after striking out 99 hitters in 76 IP and walking only 24. He lets up his fair share of home runs, 7 last year and 6 in 2003 but he can K a hitter at any time of the game. He also has a career 1.06 WHIP making him even more dangerous as a pitcher.

Low A: Columbus Catfish

22 year old SS Andy Laroche: Exploded last season in Low A at age 21 and saw action at High A Vero Beach by season's end. He had a .283/.375/.525 line in Low A before getting the promotion after 65 games. Between the two levels, he had a .260/.335/.480 with 33 doubles and 23 home runs in 127 games. Struggled a bit upon hitting Vero Beach but should improve with a full season under his belt.

19 year old SP Chuck Tiffany: Had a 13.50 ERA in only 3 games at rookie ball in 2003 but exploded onto the scene with a fabulous 2004 campaign at Columbus. He had a 3.70 ERA in 22 starts and had a 141 K/40 BB(4:1) rate in only 99.2 IP. His BB/9 of 3.6 is a little high but his 12.7 K/9 was amazing. He did allow 11 HR but at age 19, it's not something I'd be that worried about. Should reach High A this season and could see time at AA if he dominates his opponents the same way he did in Columbus.

High Rookie League: Ogden Raptors

1B Cory Dunlap: Was a 3rd round pick in the 2004 draft and made an immediate impact going for .351/.492/.518 in 72 games. He showed great plate discipline with a 68 BB/40 K rate and also showed decent power with 26 extra base hits.

SS Blake Dewitt: Was a 1st round pick in the 2004 draft and had a .284/.350/.488 line in 70 games. Needs to work on his plate discipline a bit after a 28 BB/78 K rate however he showed impressive power by going for 34 extra base hits.

Low Rookie League: Gulf Coast League Dodgers

20 year old SS Jamie Hoffman: Seems like solid hitting SS' are a dime a dozen in this organization and Hoffman continues the trend. Hoffman hit .310/.374/.459 in 60 games. He showed decent plate discipline with 24 BB/38 K and also showed some speed with 7 triples and 14 steals in 19 attempts.

Hope you enjoyed the trip through the Los Angeles Dodgers' minor league system. They have a load of prospects at SS which means some could move to 2B or elsewhere. The Dodgers also have several rotation prospects that are quickly making their way through the ranks and could see time in the majors before you know it. In particular, watch out for Edwin Jackson, Chad Billingsley, Mike Megrew, and Chuck Tiffany as can't miss starters.

2004-12-18T19:13:00.000-08:00

Welcome to our humble baseball blog. My name is Alan Keiper. I am a hardcore baseball fanatic, and an avid Phillies fan. I am starting this blog not as an ambition towards any kind of writing or journalism career, just as a side hobby. I have a few knowledgeable fans that are joining me along the way. Generally, I maintain knowledge about all major league teams, so I will discuss whatever team merits discussion. I hope some will find this blog entertaining and just a little informative.

2004-12-18T19:05:00.000-08:00

Test post.